Carlos Alberto Montaner, photo by Felix Gerard, El Universal

Carlos Alberto Montaner is one of the great Cuban thinkers of our era. He has watched the bearded beast for decades since his harrowing escape from Cuba in the early 1960s. He fought castro's thugs in the Escambray mountains as a teenager, resisting castro's communism. He was captured, and would have been killed, until he made a daring escape from the prison itself and found refuge in a friendly Latin American embassy, something that we can now see was providential. Since then, Montaner's writings show a penetrating analysis of the monster of Havana - he knows castro's mind better than castro himself. Check out that very first reply to the interviewer, - amazingly clear thinking! He's truly insightful, and every word he says must be read over and over.

So that we don't ever lose its link on El Universal, I reproduce it here:

INTERVIEW / Carlos Alberto Montaner and the Cuban transition
"Caracas will shiver with Castro's death"

"(Venezuelan President Hugo) Chávez will be politically forsaken and become a division factor between Cuba and Venezuela." In the opinion of the writer in exile, nobody in Cuba loves the Venezuelan leader

BY ROBERTO GIUSTI
EL UNIVERSAL

Cuban author, journalist and politician Carlos Alberto Montaner has been in exile for more than two thirds of his life. In Cuba, "when the time of freedom comes, in the course of one generation, a relaxed, flourishing democracy may form the spearhead in Latin America, along with Chile, by using the tools of political and economic freedoms," he dared to say.

He expressed willingness to take part in the country's reconstruction. And he does not think that imperialist plans underlie the offer made by the administration of US President George W. Bush for a smooth transition. "Cuba's annexation is the worst nightmare of an US President. In three-day term, 90 percent of Cuban inhabitants would be settled down in the United States."

Q: Is not Fidel Castro's imminent death another lure to test the reaction in Venezuela, the United States and Cuba?

A: Fidel Castro's death is announced every once in a while because everybody, including his followers, looks forward to it. Some indications point towards that direction. As he will turn 80 years soon, has suffered several brain ischemias and shows symptoms of decrepitude, it is expected that he will die in the short term or become totally disabled.

Q: Taking into account that he is the boss, is it possible that Castro himself spreads these rumors?

A: Sure enough, Fidel himself is responsible for the rumors about his health. It is obvious that he is trying to organize post-Castrism at forced march and he acts this way because he presages his death. He smashes reformers; evicts foreign corporations; chases opposition democrats as furiously as ever, and forces his brother Raúl to say in public, to read out a written speech, that following the top leader's death, the caudillo leadership will also vanish and the party will rule. Incidentally, in that speech delivered before high-ranking army officers, Raúl wore a bullet-proof jacket and a shielded cap.

Q: What, in your view, is the reason for the comeback of the most bigoted standpoints?

A: By means of re-Stalinization, Castro wants to avoid any reforming inconstancy through the party ranks. Today, dissidents are not his bitterest foes, because he has had an iron fist to keep them under control, but revolutionaries who want changes. However, when he dies, after an amazing funeral, including hysteria scenes, there will be a steep readjustment at the top leadership.

Q: How do you envisage the transition? Will a popular uprising sweep away the regime once and for all? Will succession take place, as planned by Castro, by means of a collegiate leadership of the Communist Party Central Bureau? Or will his brother Raúl's military clan come in?

A: Initially, Raúl Castro will inherit the authority, but perhaps in a divided way, as it happened in the Soviet Union after Stalin's death. Somebody like Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, who looks like the commander's clone and promises that his ideas are by no means different from his boss' ideas, will play the role of political head. Carlos Lage will continue being the madhouse sorrowful manager. Raúl Castro will keep the control of the armed forces and the Ministry of the Interior through his buddy, General Colomé Ibarra.

Q: That is, the same old story, except for Fidel.

A: No, because the collegiate administration will be short-lived. The key components are present for the system demise. Top leaders are demoralized and the society is deeply disappointed at collectivism and dictatorship. After half a century of failures, misery and rationing, one must be a blithering idiot to believe that someday the situation will get better.

Q: Are you talking about popular uprising?

A: Cubans are aware that Castro's has been the worst government in the country's history. After almost 50 years, all problems have gotten worse -food, transportation, housing, water supply, power supply. Dictatorships are usually a despicable misfortune, but at least they improve the material conditions of their people's lives. Juan Vicente Gómez and Marcos Pérez Jiménez were brutal, but in the material area the Venezuela they left was better than the one they received. After an outrageous dictatorship, Castro will pass on Cubans a sty planted with dungeons and a society overwhelmed by poverty. It is a unique case of iron hand in the world history.

Q: Based on Fidel Castro's overriding influence over President Hugo Chávez' political project, how would his death affect the goal of moving ahead in consolidation of a totalitarian regime?

A: The effects of Castro's death will be felt not only in Havana. Caracas will shiver also. Chávez will be politically forsaken and become a division factor between the two countries. Castro and Chávez dream of federating both countries, but they fear the reaction in both nations.

Q: Federating them for Chávez to inherit the power and rule the alleged federation?

A: Last December, Cuban Vice-President Carlos Lage said in Caracas that Cuba had two presidents -Castro and Chávez. It was a sounding balloon, but the trial did not work. It was a way of appointing Chávez as Castro's heir. But Cubans do not want Chávez. Those in the power view him as an untrustworthy guy who tries irresponsibly to go back to the adventurous, interventionist climate of the Cold War. Those years, a lot of people were killed and sacrificed in the island. More sensible Cuban authorities felt a sense of relief when the Soviet Union collapsed. At least, the adventures of the "revolutionary internationalism" that made them fight for 15 years in bloody African wars were over.

Q: The Cuban people must be thankful because their standard of living improved thanks to Chávez' aid.

A: Ordinary Cubans do not want Chávez either. They resent the special treatment given to the Venezuelans who visit the island for health care or political and paramilitary training. Those Venezuelans, due to their privileges, cooperate in the humiliating apartheid suffered by ordinary Cubans, who are apart from the comfortable life enjoyed by the leading class.

Q: It is just that many Venezuelans feel that Cubans and Fidel Castro are the bosses in Venezuela.

A: Reasonably enough, Venezuelans view the Cuban Government as a greedy bloodsucker determined to keep a totally nonproductive system that can survive only by means of the Venezuelan charity, accounting now for thousand million US dollars. It is always uncomfortable to be a colony. But being a colony of a failed, third-world banana dictatorship is an insult. Venezuelans, including Chávez' supporters, do not understand why they should pay such a huge invoice while 60 percent of the society is awfully poor. Castro and Chávez joined in a secret marriage that distresses tremendously the two families. Everybody, except for the two of them, feels cheated. Both for Venezuela and Cuba, this marriage is a terrible misfortune.

Translated by Conchita Delgado