This is the fourth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33144.
As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically West Miami and Flagami (insert Oscar Corral joke here). The western boundary is 87th Avenue, the eastern boundary is 57th avenue. The southern boundary is 16th street and the northern boundary is Flagler.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 25,332 (100%)
Hispanic: 22,451 (88.6%)
Cuban: 17,451 (68.9%)
Median age: 44.5
So this an area that is more than 2/3 Cuban. It’s the oldest zip we’ve examined so far.
There are 7 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 341 404 424 426 552 553 and 555.
A total of 8,555 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 5,964 of those votes or 69.7%
Barack Obama received 2,556 or 29.9%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
As I’ve said before, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 68.9% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (69.7%). We can therefore deduce again that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip who are less likely to have voted for the GOP candidate.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s election results as of 11/14.
4 thoughts on “Searching for “The Shift” Part 4”
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Henry, do an analysis of My neighborhood
33016
Oscar Corral IS a joke. He let lust destroy his career and lied in his arrest form by calling himself a “content provider” and claiming not to be Hispanic. I wonder what he will tell his daughters in the future when they see on the Internet that he was arrested for soliciting teenage prostitution.
Mike, according to the census your zip is less than 50% Cuban. I want to look at the most Cuban zips first.
My mom lives in that zip code and I grew up there many years ago. There are a significant number of more recent arrivals moving in there. A lot of the original exile children have moved away over time. So those results to me seem to indicate that there is not a significant difference between the two groups either.