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realclearworld

Forbes: “Isaac Could Rival Katrina”

isaacpic

I grabbed this off Face Book. The person who posted it said it was Isaac rolling into Key West. (BTW: Not sure that it is an actual photo of Isaac, but awesome just the same...)

Isaac-Spaghetti-Plot-2012082612

On August 24th, we warned on Forbes that Tropical Storm Isaac could pose a threat to energy markets and even rival Hurricane Katrina in its destructive power (Could Tropical Storm Isaac Turn Into Another Katrina?). While the computer models are still showing a substantial spread in solutions, it appears more likely that Isaac will make landfall somewhere near the Louisiana, Mississippi Gulf Coast. This track will provide the storm more time to intensify over the very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.

The entire Gulf Coast from Lake Charles, LA to Panama City, FL should be aware of the latest forecast model guidance. The reason for this large spread is because the computer models are split between whether a trough will capture Isaac or not. As of 8AM Sunday morning, it appears Isaac will not be captured and as a result, a more westward track is most likely.

Hurricane Katrina made landfall near New Orleans on Aug 29, 2005. It is estimated that the total economic impact in Louisiana and Mississippi exceeded $110 billion, earning the title of the most expensive hurricane ever in US history.

As Katrina moved through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and natural gas production area, it negatively impacted nearly 20% of US oil production. Hurricane Katrina, followed by Hurricane Rita in September, destroyed 113 offshore oil and gas platforms and damaged 457 oil and gas pipelines. Oil, gasoline, and natural gas futures prices on the NYMEX soared as damage assessments were reported.

Read in full...

2 comments to Forbes: “Isaac Could Rival Katrina”

  • I R A Darth Aggie

    I have my doubts. It looks more like a supercell thunderstorm in all it's rage and glory.

    And yes, gas prices will spike the next two or three weeks.

  • I R A Darth Aggie

    Also: this will not be a Katrina redux. The apparent track will be worse for the greater NOLA area. On the plus side, it's still not a hurricane, and just doesn't seem to be able to get its act together. On the negative, if it does get its act together, there's still plenty of time and warm water to go thru a spate of explosive cyclogenesis. And that is what Katrina did.

    We shall see. In the mean time, remain calm, and keep your powder and whiskey dry.