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realclearworld

MATH: Unshakable Optimism

The August jobs report is out (Not good. Not good.), and Obama having a heads-up to it a few hours prior to taking the stage last night might account for his unimpressive performance in the one area he has always excelled at ... giving a great speech.

Don Surber is a friend of mine on FaceBook. After seven years he stopped officially blogging a few months ago, but continues to write a column for the Charleston Daily Mail. But once a blogger, always a blogger, Surber's FaceBook entries often times read like blog pieces. This is his post-conventions take this morning...

As the roundabouts strike the tent in Charlotte, Mitt Romney is smiling and Barack Obama is furious. Mitt left Tampa with the Empty Chair meme. Obama left Charlotte with Democrats booing God and Bill Clinton 1988. What was O thinking? Clinton’s spoke for Dukakis, he lost. Clinton spoke for Gore, he lost.

Here is where the nation stands according to Real Clear Politics. The generic congressional ballot is tied, which means a wash and another two years of Speaker Boehner. Maybe he picks up 4 seats.

Senate is split at 46-46 with 8 seats up for grabs -- 6 of them Democratic, including Sherrod Brown of Ohio. He’s running against Howie Mandel for land’s sake. How do you lose Ohio to a nobody? (The guy is actually Josh Mandel. Poetic license.)

I say Republicans takes 6 of those 8 contests for a net gain of 5 seats.

Presidential polls are tied at 46.7%. That means 6.6% are undecided and the undecided usually go to the challenger. Good luck on that.

Polls now begin to matter. The election season is here. I have been saying follow the pols and readers have and they have usually seen a panicked Obama and a calm and bemused Romney.

Real Clear splits the Electoral College 221 Obama, 191 Romney with 10 states worth 126 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

All 10 are Obama states. In 2008, McCain had 173 Electoral College votes. Romney already is at 191.

Let me give you a hint: Romney wins all 10 tossup states. Yes, Real Clear Politics has Mitt picking up only 1, but the president is below 50% in every one of those 10 states.

The state-by-state polling cited by Real Clear Politics is very weak at this point. Most states have not had a fresh poll in weeks if not months. For example, South Carolina is listed only as “leans Romney” because there has been no poll done there this year. The last one was 10 months ago.

Presidnetial elections are referendums on the party in power in the White House. The public have decided on Obama. Only 47% want him now. The race is now Romney’s to win. He has 2 months to prove himself worthy.

This is the Republicans best shot since 1988. And yes, they won in 2000 and 2004.

In summation, the Official Prediction is a gain of 4 in the House, 5 in the Senate and 40 states. That would be 370 Romney, 168 Obama in the Electoral College.

From your lips to God's ears, Don.

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