If you pay attention to the mainstream media, this race is over, and we may as well just forego the expense of actually having an election.
Barack wins, nothing to see here…everybody just go back to “Dancing With the Stars”, thanks for the giggles Mitt.
Not quite, sayeth University of Colorado Political Science Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, whose electoral college model has correctly foretold the outcome of every Presidential election since 1980.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.
The prediction model uses economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including income per capita and both state and national unemployment figures.
The research concluded that U.S. voters blame Democrats for high unemployment rates but hold Republicans more responsible for low per capita income.
It also showed that the advantage of holding the White House disappears for Democratic candidates when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 per cent.
‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ Professor Bickers said
The prediction was made mid-August, and there is an expected update which would take into account the Presidential debates, and while the numbers may surely shift, a shift that would overcome a spread of nearly 100 electoral votes would have to come as a result of a catastrophic error by Romney.
Worthy of note is the fact that this model does not take into consideration the voter’s reaction to the terrorist attack on the US Embassy in Benghazi, the Administration’s handling of the issue, and Romney’s perceived reaction gaffe.
To be fair, there are two electoral college models which have correctly predicted the outcome of the electoral college correctly since the 80’s, the second model created by American University professor Allan Lichtman. Professor Lichtman’s model predicts an Obama win.
Mr. Lichtman has identified 13 key factors—true-or-false tests—that will make the outcome clear. According to Mr. Schoelzel, if the president “escapes with less than five falsees, he is able to hold onto the office,” but not if he has six or more. So Mr. Lichtman has concluded that Obama will win the election.
As it appears that one of the two infallible models will fail this year, unless the predicted outcomes are changed by either in this upcoming update. What is for certain, is that is spite of the coronation attempt by the mainstream media, this race is too close to call.
For those who may wish to paint Babalú as a biased site, I’d like to point out that in reporting the conflicting electoral college predictions, we have once again proven ourselves to be “fair and balanced” in our posting, giving both candidates a full measure of respect, as warranted by their political stature.
May the best man win!