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realclearworld

From The Chong Gang to The Choom Gang: Obama’s “False Positive” Jobs Numbers

I'm sorta kinda sorry, but hearing the fantastic new jobless rate number this morning suddenly brought that "Up in Smoke" pregnant sister's urine swap scene to mind. And then the irony of up in smoke was even more interesting, considering that is exactly how the economic numbers are being presented (smoke and mirrors) where our economy is heading.

Oh, praise the faultless but always credited prophet Chicago Jesus! The unemployment numbers have miraculously dropped below 8% just a month before the election! Because, you know, no president has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate at 8% or above. The book-cooking gods must be having mercy on Barry after his miserable multi-excuses-prone failure in the recent debate against that evil successful business guy Mitt Romney...

James Pethokoukis at AEI shows us just how wonderful this sudden fake good news is, in all reality, in "The sickly, stagnant September jobs report". It is a false positive...

False-Positive-Pregnancy-Test

Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.

1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

2. And take-home pay? Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.

3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.

Pethokoukis is hard at work digging deeper into this faux good news and more can be found at the links below (with more at the above link with more graphs):

The one chart that shows there’s been no jobs market recovery since the end of the Great Recession

chart

873,000 jobs? Last time, the economy added that many, it was growing at a white-hot 9.3%

Economist: Unemployment drop ‘implausible … a statistical quirk’

Well now, THIS just might `splain that great false positive jobs report this morning...

Poll: Romney In Post-Debate Surge, Now Leads In Battleground States Florida, Virginia, Ohio…

CNBC's Rick Santelli smells a rat

MRC TV: "The panel on MSNBC's Morning Joe was strongly skeptical of the latest unemployment numbers. As the group pointed out, the job growth wasn't large enough to cause such a large drop in unemployment." (video)


Okay ... WHY the false positive?

Simply put, to taint the jury. It is to sway the 'undecideds' who will have ONLY heard this morning's initial report of a fallen unemployment percentage ... but will not hear the nuts and bolts behind it, and the logical doubts, as the day progressed. The judge can turn to the jury all he/she wants to tell them to disregard/forget what they first heard, but they simply cannot.

And things are about to get worse for everybody...

Drudge Headlines:

California Refiners Ration Gasoline as Prices Near Record...

Jump 30 cents overnight!

Spiking above $5...

L.A. stations run out, close pumps...

$4 gas: Get used to it; $5 coming...

Just saw this comment on Facebook regarding the unemployment numbers:

"This might be true if the count as employed all the street protestors that Obama is paying to harrass Romney campaign rallies."

3 comments to From The Chong Gang to The Choom Gang: Obama’s “False Positive” Jobs Numbers

  • asombra

    The MSM wouldn't buy it for a second if Obama was Republican, even if it were accurate.

  • It is as subtle as which part of the report you will stress.

    As Kevin Hassett point out at NRO's The Corner:

    "The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.

    The household survey, on the other hand, portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could possibly be true given the other indicators. According to it, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, with total employment jumping by a whopping 873,000. I wish it were true, but it will likely be a blip when we have a few more months of data.

    Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest."

    Romney's campaign should emphasize that the while Obama may rejoice at a set of numbers which could perhaps help his re-election chances, the real numbers: new claims for unemployment insurance remaining at @375,000 a week, and an "anemic", and the fact that the second quarter's estimated economic growths estimates have been revised downward to an anemic 1.3%, do not help the people of the country, especially the middle class.

  • [...] Luis Gonzalez: It is as subtle as which part of the report you will stress. As Kevin Hassett point out at NRO’s... [...]