Brit Hume, before yesterday’s debate, explained the main problem with the polls in this election cycle. I’ve tried to express this previously but haven’t been able to do it as succinctly or clearly as Hume.
Most observers agree that the Dems will not have the same +7 advantage that they did in 2008 in terms of turnout. Simply stated there isn’t as much enthusiasm for Obama as there was 4 years ago and there’s a lot of enthusiasm out there for firing him. Of course, this is anecdotal and not empirical. That’s why it’s really important to look at the independent voters to get an idea of the real state of race. As I’ve said before, independents are attracted to movements not moderates. This year the movement is to end the Obama experiment.