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realclearworld

…and the Tuna sandwich takes the lead.

Two stories tonight.

First this:

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Then this:

The Rasmussen poll of Ohio shows the candidates tied at 48 percent each with about three percent undecided. If more than two out of three of those undecided voters go to Romney, which is quite likely in an election like this where a challenger has momentum against less than popular incumbent president, Mitt Romney is likely to win more than 50 percent in Ohio and win the state's 18 electoral votes.

Ohio does not require voters to register with a party when they register to vote, so we do not have hard numbers form the state on voter affiliation with the political parties in Ohio. We instead can only measure partisan affiliation of the election in Ohio by surveys and exit polls. Democrats have lost far more voters than Republicans in Ohio, which suggests the electorate in 2012 should be more favorable to Republicans in Ohio than it was in 2008.

The latest poll of Ohio from SurveyUSA has Obama leading 47 percent to 44 percent over Romney based on a sample that is 39 percent Democrats to 32 percent Republicans. Given that turnout in Ohio this year is expected to be more even between Democrats and Republicans, as opposed to Democrats by seven percent, even this polls data using a seven percent skew to result in only a three percent lead for Obama, indicates a likely lead of two or three percent for Romney. This poll by SurveyUSA has independent voters in Ohio supporting Romney by a 47 percent to 39 percent margin. Romney winning independent voters by eight percent or more will translate to Romney winning the state on election day.

The last poll of Ohio by Suffolk University polling has the race tied at 47 percent using a sample that is 39 percent Democrats to 35 percent Republicans. Also in that survey, two-thirds of the undecided voters when asked, said they would vote for Romney. The data from this poll clearly indicate, given that measure and its four percent skew for Democrats, that Romney is likely to eke out a narrow win in Ohio if the election closed today.

A recent survey of Ohio by Gravis Marketing also shows the race tied at 47 percent. In this survey, Romney is leading by a margin of 52 percent to 33 percent among independent voters. Gravis used a sample that included 41 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans that results in the poll showing the race tied. Given that most undecided voters will side with Romney by election day, and the degree to which this sample favors Democrats, it also indicates the likeliness that Romney would win Ohio if the election closed today.

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