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realclearworld

Intrade, something smells funny

A couple of weeks ago I posted about possible rigging of Intrade by people sympathetic to the Obama campaign. I've been monitoring the numbers pretty closely and during the last couple of days shares for Romney to win spiked up to the high $4 mark (meaning the chances of him winning were theoretically in the high 40s). Now they have settled back down to $3.83 as of this writing, more or less where it had been before the spike. Now that doesn't amount to proof of anything but the polling basically has not changed. What caused the spike and what caused the subsequent drop? If there was someone trying to prop up Obama's stock and depress Romney's this is what the pattern would look like. But I've observed another interesting phenomenon. The price for shares in the GOP nominee winning Ohio is $4.39 (a 43.9% chance of occurring). What's interesting about it is that most observers believe that the winner of Ohio will win the election. So there's 56 cent spread between the price for these two events occurring. Is the price of Obama shares in the overall being election being propped up? You be the judge.

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