Indy fever

11 days ago I posted about something I noticed. With all of the scrutinizing of the polls, something had been missed by a lot of the commentators: Obama is losing among independents, and not by a small margin.

Here’s a few recent articles about this phenomenon:

Obama’s Independent Problem

Independents’ Day

GATHERING STORM: TIME FOR DEMS TO HIT PANIC BUTTON

Independents Shift to Romney

Despite the media’s efforts to portray this as a real horserace, it’s not going to be that close. There’s no way you can win an election when you’re losing independents by double digits.

2 thoughts on “Indy fever

  1. There are so many polls and blogs with so many different election predictions (e.g., Unskewed and Rasmussen versus, say, Gallup and FiveThirtyEight). They cannot all be correct, not when some are predicting wildly different outcomes from others. The post-election analysis and reevaluation of these polls / predictions and their sampling strategies will be fascinating to observe. No matter who wins or loses.

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