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realclearworld

Tell me again how Obama is going to win

Looking at the polls in the RCP average that provide cross-tabulations (splits) Romney has the following advantages among independent voters:

Indeps

I know the election is decided by Electoral College votes not popular vote, but if Romney wins among independents the way these polls suggest he'll have a considerable popular vote win and the larger the popular vote win, the less likely it is for a candidate to lose the electoral college. In 2000, the last time there was a popular vote/electoral college split the margin in the popular vote was 0.5%.

4 comments to Tell me again how Obama is going to win

  • FreedomForCuba

    A week from now we'll know for certain how accurate these polls were, thought I strongly suspect the MSM is not telling the truth.

  • I believe the pollsters are trying to get an accurate read. The question is "are they?". And this idea of whose more likely to turn out is the major problem. But if you have agreement that Romney is winning the independents by 8-10 pts then you know the popular vote is probably going to go Romney's way by 4-5 points because they make up about a third of the electorate.

  • Fuzzy_Bunny

    So is anyone here buying Romney shares at Intrade? Hundreds of shares are available for purchase in the $3.20 range, thousands at prices just a little higher. They'll be worth $10 if Romney wins. Nice way to triple your money in a week.

  • I have an intrade account but it has no funds left in it. It's a pain to open one and more of a pain to fund it since it's overseas and that type of "investing" is not legal here.