PINAR DEL RIO


support babalú


Your donations help fund
our continued operation

do you babalú?

what they’re saying


bestlatinosmall.jpg

quotes.gif

activism


ozt_bilingual


buclbanner

recommended reading





babalú features





recent comments


  • Rayarena: Asombra: “The NYT knows exactly what the score is, as it always has, but it’s simply playing its long-accustomed...

  • asombra: Cuba is doing what suits Castro, Inc., period. But let’s give due credit: the regime could hardly be clearer. It’s...

  • asombra: Che Guevara, for one, was all for the USSR crushing the Hungarian uprising, just as Fidel later kissed Soviet ass by being all...

  • asombra: Carlos, it’s OK. They’re Latrines, which means their concept of shame and disgrace is VERY different from yours, so...

  • asombra: The NYT is simply protecting its creature, its Frankenstein, as it always has and always will. The Herbert Matthews business was...

search babalu

babalú archives

frequent topics


elsewhere on the net



realclearworld

Is Ohio a state of independents?

I've been paying particular attention to how independents are swinging in the polls. Nationally it's pretty clear the Romney is winning among independents and by pretty good margins. I decided to look a little closer at Ohio's independent voters and learned a few things along the way. The Ohio polls show a wide variance in what they are reporting about independent voter preferences. I brought this inconsistency up to Eric Radenmacher, Ph.D. who fields the Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati. He pointed out the small sample sizes for independents in his and other polls which make the results more volatile.

Not satisfied with not getting a clearer read on the situation I decided to create my own average of independent voters in Ohio based on those polls currently in the RCP average for that state. Fortunately for me all of these polls have published their crosstabs or enough data to be able create the average (Rasmussen is by subscription, but I am a subscriber so I was able to see the data).

Here's what I found.

ohio indep

Most of the polls have Romney holding a 4 point or greater lead among independents. The previously aforementioned University of Cincinnati poll and the CNN/ORC poll are the only ones showing Obama leading independents. Averaged together based on the number of respondents in each poll, Romney is leading with a +4 spread.

In 2008, the exit polls showed that independents were about 30% of the Ohio electorate and they went for Obama by an 8 point spread. If Romney is winning among independents, as most of the polls show, then a slight improvement in turnout by Republicans (as is expected do to higher enthusiasm and lower enthusiasm Democrats) should mean a Romney win in that state and probably the electoral college.

Comments are closed.