Actual Cuban-American Vote Result: Romney 58% -Obama 42%
For Immediate Release
November 12, 2012
Actual Cuban-American Vote Result: Romney 58% -Obama 42%
Results show a reduction in support for the Republican candidate, but not the dramatic shift incorrectly predicted by some exit polls.
WASHINGTON, D.C. - A scientific analysis of the actual voting results in Miami-Dade County show that Governor Mitt Romney bested President Barack Obama 58-42% among Cuban-American voters. This does represents a 6% gain for President Obama from 2008, but not of the magnitude predicted by some exit polls.
Obama campaign officials in Florida have stated (Financial Times, 11/8/12) that Governor Romney's pick of Paul Ryan as his Vice-Presidential nominee, whose past voting record included support for unilaterally lifting sanctions against the Cuban dictatorship, created skepticism among some Cuban-Americans and gave them an opening to make a case on economic and social issues.
"While Congressman Ryan's position on Cuba policy had evolved years before the election (in 2007), it certainly created suspicion among some Cuban-American voters," said Mauricio Claver-Carone, Executive Director of Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy, Corp.
"The Obama campaign took full advantage of the opening created by the Ryan pick."
The scientific analysis was conducted by Dr. Dario Moreno and Dr. Kevin Hill and commissioned by Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy, Corp.
Below is the Summary Memo of their findings:
Mitt Romney under-performed among Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County. President Obama won Miami-Dade County by an increase majority in 2012 over 2008. In 2008, Barack Obama received 499,831 votes in Miami-Dade County compared to 360,551 for the Republican candidate Senator John McCain. Obama's margin of victory was 139,280 votes. This year Obama improved his vote total in Miami Dade to 540,776 compared to 332,602 for Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Obama increased his margin of victory to 208,174. In order words Obama won Miami-Dade County in 2012 by 68,884 more votes than in 2008.
The Obama campaign and several exit polls (Fox News and Pew) claimed that Obama improved his showing in Miami-Dade County by winning the Cuban American poll 49% to 47%. Bendixen & Amandi International, a Democratic polling firm that has worked for Obama, found a slightly different but still significant breakdown of Cuban-American support, with 48 percent for Obama and 52 percent for Romney. While, there is little doubt that Obama improved his showing among Cuban American voters from the 36% he received in 2008, we found the difference a little less dramatic.
Professor Kevin Hill and I did an ecological regression of large Cuban precincts in Miami-Dade County and found that the Cuban Americans voted for Romney 58% to 42%. This results includes the over 50,000 Absentee ballots submitted by Cuban-Americans over sixty in Miami-Dade County that were not captured by Fox News and Pew exit polling. This demographic is traditionally the most Republican demographic in Miami-Dade. There was a significant reduction in Cuban American support for the Republican candidate but not as dramatic as the exit poll found.
I'm glad that the right percentages are being posted. I kind of suspected that we still had majority here in Miami-Dade county. I understand that possibly the majority of Cuban-Americans arrived after 1995 will vote for Obama given their mental state (ie. Communist brainwashing/indoctrination). It's safe to assume that this is the most plausible reason for the 42% support for Obama here.
FFC, the new numbers are a bit better, but still scary. You're correct about the post-1995 batch, unfortunately, they are gaining while we are losing demographically. BTW, they are spreading out and infecting other Florida communities that are traditionally more conservative.
In brief: every single news outlet from FoxNews to NBC to Reuters to AP to the Miami Herald-- and every one of their invaluable sources from Pew Hispanic Center to Bendixen & Amandi International were WRONG--and by wide margins.
And were it not for Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy Corp. the lie would stand. (In fact with the MSM, the lie will probably stand anyway.) So imagine how many other lies regarding Cuba and Cuban-Americans are printed, spoken--and become enshrined in media folklore every week?!
Absolutely Un-'Freakin-Real
The numbers are still appalling, including the 2008 numbers, and will only get worse. This may well be due to Cubanoid voters, but I suspect some of it is due to a very old Cuban problem: "irse con el de arriba" (going with whoever is on top).
Let's face it, for most Cuban immigrants (as opposed to exiles), the key issue is maintaining and augmenting the current RELAJO with respect to Cuba travel and remittances, which is far more important to them than what's best for the US (assuming they even have a fucking clue). Cubanoid is as Cubanoid does.
Hate to be a critic but believing the voting analyses conducted by those we like and casting doubt on those we don't ... isn't that what part of what got us into this mess?
The analysis by Moreno and Hill (political scientists but not trained statisticians) made use of an ecological regression, which is a method known to suffer from a number of defects including confounding and aggregation bias.
I'm not saying that Fox News and Pew are necessarily absolutely correct, but the truth is probably somewhere in between their results and Moreno and Hill's.
I hear you, deganmiles, but a couple of days ago I went to this site where all the results by voting precincts can be pulled in very short time:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/06/3085128/interactive-miami-dade-precinct.html
Using the precincts Henry used in his 2008 analysis:
http://babalublog.com/category/elusive-shift/
I took a rather quick look at a couple of the zip codes Henry used back in 2008. It showed results pretty close to what Moreno and Hill came up with, about 60/40 in favor of Romney.
Nice to have you back around these parts, Robert. When can we expect one of your usual thoughtful posts? The pit bulls and the rottweilers rule!
deganmiles,
I do not necessarily doubt the exit poll results from Pew or Fox News, but I do take issue with how those results were presented. They were used as "proof" that the Cuban American vote has drastically changed and shifted towards Democrats while inadvertently or purposely ignoring and not even mentioning the impact absentee ballots would have on their findings. The problem here is that older generation Cuban Americans, who happen to be the staunchest conservatives, have a high propensity to vote via absentee ballot. The exit poll results only showed a part of the picture, but it was presented as the whole picture.
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