Not so fast, my friends
Right after the election there was a lot of analysis done on how Cuban-Americans in South Florida voted. Some gave a slight edge to Romney and some to Obama. As Lee Corso would say on College Game Day, "not so fast, my friends!"
Here's my analysis using actual precinct-level election results, just published at PJ Media.
Cuban-Americans Flipped to Obama? Not Quite
Mitt Romney appears to have won about 60% of Cuban-Americans.
November 18, 2012 - 11:32 pm
This election cycle was remarkable in the degree to which we were subjected to analysis of the polls. In particular, conservatives like me believed the pollsters had it wrong when they showed a likely voter mix that resembled 2008. We were wrong; the pollsters were largely right. The Democrats turned out in enough numbers to negate the advantage Romney had with independents.
In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s defeat, an unprecedented amount of scrutiny was focused on the Cuban-American population of south Florida. Some exit polls claimed Romney lost the historically reliable Cuban vote for the GOP, and others showed a small margin in favor of Romney.
The Cuban-American vote is important because it has been a Republican island in the sea of blue that is the map of south Florida. In fact, it has been important enough to perhaps swing an entire presidential election. Many observers believe an angry Cuban-American bloc turned against Vice President Al Gore because of President Clinton’s handling of the Elian Gonzalez case. George W. Bush won Florida by only 537 votes, and exit polls show Gore did worse with Cuban-Americans in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996. It’s not a stretch to think that at least 269 Cubans registered a protest vote in favor of Bush or voted for Bush but wouldn’t have voted at all if not for Elian.
Despite a Republican-dominated state legislature and a Republican governor, the state has gone for Obama twice, though the spread in 2012 contracted to .9% from 2.5% in 2008. So as we look forward, we can see that Cuban-Americans may once again have a disproportionate influence in choosing a president in 2016.