Thor Halvorssen: Venezuela without Chavez – another Cuba
John Fund in the National Review:
Halvorssen: Post-Chávez Reform ‘Will Be Less Easy and Take Longer than Many Hope’
Many people look forward to a Venezuela without Hugo Chávez, a prospect that looks more immediate now that the strongman has announced he is scheduled to have emergency cancer surgery in Cuba and has appointed Nicholas Maduro, his vice president, as his designated successor in the event of his death.
But Thor Halvorssen, a prominent Venezuelan human-rights advocate, isn’t optimistic. The head of the New York–based Human Rights Foundation, a group devoted to showcasing abuses by government of all persuasions, Halvorssen says Venezuela is likely to get worse before it gets better in the event Chávez dies soon.
“A presidential election must be held within 30 days if Chávez is gone,” he told me in an interview in New York yesterday. “The regime is already preparing a false-reform ‘dawn’ that will try to bolster its chances. They will release all political prisoners, they will invite back some exiles, and they will loosen some controls. But in reality it will be all be for show.”
Halvorssen says the opposition to Chávez is still divided. Its candidate in last October’s presidential election, Henrique Capriles, lost to Chávez by ten points in a race that was largely free of fraud. Regional elections for the country’s 23 governorships are scheduled for this coming Sunday, and it’s quite possible the Chávez machine will defeat Capriles when he runs for reelection as governor in Miranda province. “The machine could win 20 of the 23 governorships and further entrench its ability to prevent the opposition from having enough resources to challenge the new President Maduro in an election,” Halvorssen says.
He is quick to say he hopes he is wrong. He has good reason to hate and fear the Chávez government: His own mother was shot and wounded by Venezuelan security forces in 2004 while attending a peaceful protest. The gunmen’s actions were broadcast on live television as they shot into the crowd, leaving twelve people wounded and one dead.
“Chávez’s henchmen are desperate to retain power after he’s gone and they have the example of Cuba in how power can be transferred from one leader [Fidel Castro] to another [Raúl Castro] without a revolt,” Halvorssen says. “Freedom will come to my country but I fear it will be less easy and take longer than many people hope.”
Those now in power will do whatever they can to retain it. They know they can count on the complicity or “neutrality” of practically all of Latrine America and the rest of the world, including the US under any Dem president and obviously the UN. Unfortunately, it’s not just Chavez who’s seriously ill—so is Venezuela. Among other issues, it's crawling with people who will support anybody who promises enough free stuff, and they're NOT interested in who pays for it or how. Time will tell, but I expect Halvorssen is largely correct.
The real problem, or the worst of it, is the same in Cuba: too many people willing to trade freedom, dignity and decency for a would-be magic solution or panacea--essentially willing to cut off their head to fix their nose, and perfectly willing to see others get screwed so they can get what they want.
I meant to say the problem is the same as it WAS in Cuba. By now, nobody there expects the "revolution" to solve anything.
Asombra, they will do anything, but they are running out of money in spite high oil prices, and without Chavez and his powerful personality it's going to be close to anarchy. Of course Maduro is trusting in the help of the spirits of the Bolivian Mayas (you read right, it's not my mistake!)to keep the leader alive and the "revolution" going.
Bolivian Mayas. Check. So what's with all this crucifix kissing?
crucifix kissing... sheer hypocrisy on the part of some, ignorance on the part of others.