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realclearworld

Cuba analy$t$ wonder what’$ behind Cuba’$ migratory reform$

It $eem$ that Cuba pundit$ and anayl$t$ are confu$ed about the motivation$ behind the Ca$tro dictator$hip'$ newe$t "reform" that purportedly will now allow Cuban$ to leave and return to the i$land a$ they plea$e, a$ long a$ they come back with plenty of ca$h in their pocket$.

Via the Miami Herald:

What’s behind Cuba’s new travel policy?

Analysts say politics, money, and sending a message to the U.S. may have motivated Cuba to instigate a more liberal travel policy.
http://media.miamiherald.com/smedia/2013/01/17/22/06/fUSfy.Em.56.jpegAs Cubans embraced their first week as potential global travelers, the rest of the world pondered Cuba’s motivation in enacting one of its most sweeping reforms to date and how it might affect travel throughout the region.

And one ally responded swiftly to the prospect of an increase in Cuban visitors after the change took effect Monday.

The day after the reform allowing Cubans to travel without obtaining an exit visa or a mandatory invitation letter from a foreign host, Ecuador stiffened its own policy on visits by Cubans. Previously, Cubans were allowed to visit for up to 90 days with no entry requirements. Now, Ecuador wants Cubans to provide a letter of invitation from an Ecuadorean host, or from an immigrant residing in Ecuador, that promises to pay for the visitor’s expenses, including any medical costs.

The policy, which takes effect Monday, is aimed at creating an “orderly” flow of visitors and preventing human trafficking, Ecuador said.

“In some ways, Cuba is passing the buck to the receiving countries. This is a smart step politically speaking,” said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a Cuba expert and economics professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh.

“If Cuba implements this new policy broadly, it will reduce the pressure for another Mariel,’’ he said. More than 125,000 Cubans came to the United States during the 1980 Mariel boatlift.

Because Cubans will still need an entry visa to visit the United States, analysts say trips to countries that don’t require visas may increase and, in turn, back-door trips through those countries, with an ultimate goal of reaching the United States, also will increase.

“I think the Cubans are trying to preemptively address the pent-up demand for travel overseas as well as create a mechanism so they can continue to capture the benefits from those who travel aboard,” said Jonathan Benjamin Alvarado, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. “I’m not sure they can pull this off. It’s a pretty critical moment for the regime.’’

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