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realclearworld

Really? A poll about US-Cuba policy based on “1,024 randomly selected adults”?

There are polls, such as those based on likely or registered voters, and then there are those based on "1,024 randomly selected adults".    The former is a serious effort to understand public opinion.  The latter is just a "cheap" effort to influence our foreign policy.

The New York Times is reporting on a new poll that goes like this:

"“This survey shows that the majority of Americans on both sides of the aisle are ready for a policy shift,” Peter Schechter and Jason Marczak, the top two executives at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center of the Atlantic Council, wrote in an introduction to the survey. “Most surprisingly, Floridians are even more supportive than an already supportive nation to incrementally or fully change course.”

While the survey showed that Americans have concerns about the Cuban government’s political repression, Mr. Schechter and Mr. Marczak said, they “recognize the need for alternatives in light of the failure of the current policy to achieve its objective.”

The survey found that 56 percent of respondents nationwide favor changing Cuba policy, a majority that jumps to 63 percent among Florida adults and 62 percent among Latinos nationwide. While support is strongest among Democrats and independents, the survey showed 52 percent of Republicans also favor normalization."

The problem with this poll is that the media will broadcast the headline but fail to mention this:

"Conducted by telephone and cellphone in English and Spanish from Jan. 7 to Jan. 22, the survey was based on responses from 1,024 randomly selected adults, with oversamples of 617 Florida residents and 525 Latinos. The nationwide margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points; for Florida residents and for Latinos it was plus or minus 4 percentage points."

This is not a serious poll.  This is an effort to influence policy with a poll based on a lousy sample!

By the way, wonder how many of these "randomly selected adults" know that the Cuban dictatorship  is holding a US citizen named Allan Wall on bogus charges?

or engaged in a massive repression campaign against dissidents?  

or that the Cuban people have never been "polled" by an independent organization on their  feelings about the dictatorship running the island for 55 years?

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

 

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