Reports from Cuba’s Venezuela: Chavismo and Maduro have their version of ‘La Salida’
Chavismo and Maduro have their version of "La Salida"
Something funny happened with my last post in Spanish: it got more hits than an English written post and more G+ than usual (note: I have no idea what G+ truly is good for, it just appears with the posts). Yet few comments, as it happens with my Spanish written posts. Still, since a reader asked me to translate it, I am forced to reply that no, it cannot be translated because it has portions that are really designed to humor a Venezuelan audience (like the Flores family placement system), not to mention that humor, even if diffident, is not easy to translate. But I can post a rewrite, an English summary of sorts.
The point of that post was that the Giordani letter and its consequences highlighted that chavismo was possibly considering an exit out of a situation that they cannot control. Thus "the exit / la salida" to copy ironically the failed program of Lopez and Machado. Failed for the time being, but that is another story.
Why would chavismo consider an exit? Several reasons: they cannot control the economic crisis; they know their coalition of interests is unraveling; they know that too many of them will go to jail for their crimes (and there may be a need to select a few scapegoats); many of them would like to enjoy their loot, and would pay a reasonable price to be allowed to do so; and more. Clearly, this is impossible to tie it all up neatly and some changes will have to occur.
The booting of Giordani and the accusation of "izquierda transnochada", (very outdated lefties) is the clearest evidence that some inside the regime want things to change for the better but only on the economic level. That does not mean at all that they want to change a system that gives the regime control on everything, just that materially things should get better so that people are less angry at them and a soft landing would become possible.
You need to remember that Maduro would have never booted Giordani without the agreement of his Cuban mentors, even if the army wanted it. Not that Giordani was per se of any importance, but he was a symbol of the cynical left, the one that wants everyone to be poor for a long time so they forget about the comforts of life and become true revolutionaries. Many books exist on these colossal failures but hope springs eternal.
Unfortunately the world has shifted for the Castro vampires and the corrupt hanger-on and drug traffickers in Venezuela. It is not only a matter that Chavez is not here anymore to control things (which I personally doubt he could do this time around) but Fidel is bound to croak any time soon; and Raul is not far behind. Besides, today it is quite possible that Venezuela is unable to send Castro's way all what it used to send, so there is a need to speed up political processes. And this the more so that Maduro clearly has not been able to gain legitimacy after the electoral fraud of 2013 and is ruling on borrowed time.
Finally, there is Rafael Poleo, Zeta's editor, that has been mentioning over and over that the Castro's are going to surrender a ruined Venezuela, with all of its oil reserves, to the global economy in exchange of Cuba being left alone with the Castros and associates enjoying in peace their loot. The recent ISIS debacle in Iraq and Putin mercurial behavior with Russian gas and oil abound in that direction. In the grand order of things, the US will become self reliant in energy (with the back up of Canada and Mexico as needed), the Middle East will be left to China an India in case they can deal better with the restless natives, assuming China does not fall into its own long overdue political crisis. Japan, I suppose, will have to satisfy itself with Indonesia and Burma and scraps here and there. And thus Venezuela would be for Europe. If Brasil shakes out Dilma next October, in about 5 years we could start seeing a new tri-polar world emerging around the Atlantic and an ally in Japan to secure the Pacific. The rest of the world can do as it pleases, as long as it keeps the noise down.
In short, if through different approaches Poleo and people like yours truly are right, the center of the world would not be anymore America but The Americas. And all made possible by Venezuela accepting by force what should have been always its logical position. That it failed to do so when it had the upper hand in the 80ies will make it more painful to do it now on other people terms, starting by the Havana criminals.
Fortunately for chavismo the constitution, for what that rag is worth today, favors them more than it favors the opposition, schedule wise. So there follows a possible "salida" for chavismo.
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