Last December, many welcomed President Obama’s opening to Cuba as an opportunity to bring prosperity to the island. It went something like this: American tourists will spend money in Cuba and freedom will blossom. The other version went like this: our past approach has not worked so let’s try something new. Another one went like this: Cubans will talk to Americans and demand multiparty elections and a free press.
Sorry, but U.S.-Cuba relations have not worked out as planned or dreamed. There are two big reasons. The first reason is that the Castro regime is not about to relax political control. On the contrary, there has been a rise in repression and more and more dissidents find it difficult to express themselves. The second reason is that the Castro regime wants to keep control of the cash flow. This is from Fox News Latino:
The Cuban government, Lee said, still clearly “prefers to channel all business opportunities to state-run enterprises.”
And why not? The Obama approach has been completely one sided. The U.S. gives up everything and Cuba gives nothing. The Castro brothers have concluded that they will ask and Obama will provide. So far so good for the dictatorship.
The Cuban government needs these state enterprises under the Castro Inc. holding company. It allows the Castro brothers to get wealthy, it keeps property ownership from the Cuban people and turns the island into a Spanish speaking Vietnam with good baseball players.
Mauricio Tamargo, an attorney, wrote recently about Cuban finances,or better put, the Castro family finances:
Forbes Magazine used to list both Castro brothers on its list of the top 100 richest people in the world. Forbes later removed the Castro brothers from the “Top 100” after the Cuban government objected, indicating those Swiss bank accounts in both Fidel and Raul’s names are held by the Castro brothers on “behalf of the Cuban people.”
Again, why should the Cuban government want to give up control of the economy? “Fidelismo” has been very good for the family bank accounts, the gang that surrounds and protects the dictator and all of those state enterprises that collect dollars and pay Cubans in worthless pesos.
The Obama administration moved too fast and never demanded concessions from a cash starved dictator about to lose his energy subsidy from Venezuela. We had all of the cards and could have done more for the Cuban people. Instead, the Obama team pleased the left wing college professors in U.S. universities and threw the Cuban people under the bus.
Prosperity coming to Cuba? It won’t happen until there is a regime change.
The Cuban government has just announced the latest version of “foreign investment reforms.”
Before you go and put a dime in Cuba’s corrupt communist government, please consider what my friend Alberto de la Cruz posted yesterday:
“The most important flaw that is obvious from the outset is the legal aberration of expressly excluding the rights of Cubans on the island to participate as investors in their own country, an issue that is unparalleled in any civilized nation, and that alone disqualifies the best intentions beforehand. Another issue, no less twisted, is the exclusion of free contract (that is, allowing foreign investors to hire Cuban workers directly).
Both elements are unsustainable since they are not justified or serve any function other than to maintain absolute control over the population to prevent the weakening of political power.”
In other words, the Castro family, or “Castro Inc,” wants you to invest in Cuba but only if you align yourself with Raul and his sick older brother.
The new “reforma” does not allow you to negotiate directly with Cuban workers, or the essence of a free market economy where you can hire and fire based on your economic necessities.
In other words, Cuban workers are not allow to form ‘a union,” as they used to do before the communists came to power!
For example, my father was a banker in Cuba and a member of the “bankers union.” It allowed Cuban workers like my dad to negotiate with the many Cuban private banks or employers.
Pre-communist Cuba enjoyed living standards that no one in the island today enjoys today, as CONTACTO published a few years ago:
“In 1958, an industrial worker in Cuba earned an average salary of the equivalent of $6 US dollars per each 8-hour work day, while an agricultural worker earned the equivalent of $3 US dollars.
Cuba then ranked number eight (8) in the world as far as salaries paid to industrial workers…..”
By the way, you didn’t learn that by watching “Godfather II” or your Latin America studies class in school.
Don’t get your Cuban history from watching “Godfather II” or a leftist professor. Instead, talk to my father and the others who were actually there and remember the bloody communist takeover.
So don’t get too excited about Raul’s cynical “reformas,” as reported by Cross-border debt and equity specialist, William A. Wilson. In simple terms, how can you invest in a country that does not respect property laws? Just ask Cubans, or others, who had their properties expropriated by the same Castro brothers who now want you to invest in the island!
The bottom line is that Raul is not looking to improve Cuba’s economy.
He is just hoping that foolish investors will bail out Castro “socialismo.”
Raul needs a “sugar daddy” now that the USSR is dead or most countries don’t want to finance “la revolucion” that doesn’t pay back its loans.
“Cubans are taking another hit to their wallets as the government announces an increase in the cost of powdered milk, a staple of every home with children and basic to the diet of nearly everyone on the island.
The measure will not affect the state-subsidized supply of powdered milk to children aged seven and under.
They receive three kilograms of powdered milk at the equivalent of 40 U.S. cents a kilogram, paid for in ordinary Cuban pesos.
But at hard-currency stores, the price of a half-kilogram package will go up 45 cents from $2.90 to $3.35. A kilogram package will go up by 85 cents or from $5.75 to $6.60.
These stores sell in Cuban convertible pesos (CUC) comparable to the U.S. dollar and already have a 240 percent markup on their products.
The average state employee earns the equivalent of between $20 to $30 USD a month and spends up to 80 percent of their income just on food so any price hike puts the family budget into a tailspin.
“Everything is difficult and this price rise will make them more difficult,” said Magdalena, a 45-year-old woman who has a 15-year-old daughter and a 19-year-old son.
“If prices go up in the shops, the price on the black market will also increase so we won’t be able to buy as much.””
Another day and another failure “para la revolucion”!
By the way, pre-Castro had its problems and we’ve been very frank about them. The island had its share of political problems and corruption was a factor. My parents were there in the 1950’s and they are the first ones to recognize the island’s shortcomings.
At the same time, “milk problems” caused by a weak and worhtless currency was not one of them.
There was lots of “leche cubana” (Cuban milk) to go around and a strong Cuban peso to handle any imports if bad weather or some other reason, made that necessary.
Imported milk, or price fluctuations of such imports, was not something that our mothers or “abuelas” (grandmothers) had to worry about. They had plenty of milk brands to choose from when they went to “la bodega”.
We’ve seen this movie many times before. It starts with a country giving Cuba a line of credit or going around the US embargo. It is followed by high expectations that Cuba will change once Cubans in the island greet foreign tourists or Spaniards build hotels.
However, the movie always ends the same way: Cuba can’t pay the loans and Cubans are still living in a repressive state.
We’ve seen that movie several times since the collapse of the Soviet Union in ’92. Just ask all of the countries who’ve had to reschedule their loans to Cuba or just forgive old ones.
First, no talks at any level until Cuba releases Mr. Allan Gross unconditionally. Simply hand him over to the Red Cross so that he can be reunited with his family. No meeting or talks until that happens first;
Second, the world should demand a democratic transition in Cuba. No more “wishful thinking” about reforms that don’t really reform or “expectations” of change that never comes.
This is the moment for the US to draw the line and say “enough” in Cuba.
It’s a shame to see a self proclaimed reformer, like President Pena-Nieto, shaking hands with the longest running dictatorship in Latin America. (I understand President Fernandez of Argentina, who wouldn’t mind hiding in Cuba given the collapse of Argentina’s economy.)
Also, dissidents were not allowed to come anywhere near the meetings and some were locked up during the events.
At the same time, don’t overlook the real reason for the picture and the handshake.
Let me speak about Mexico, a country that I am very familiar with.
After college, I worked in Mexico for a US company for several years. I was active in local chambers of commerce and had a chance to meet some business and political leaders.
We had chats about Cuba and Mexico very often. I got hot many times but my Mexican hosts would always tell me to look behind the curtain.
They taught me this about Mexico and Cuba: Do not take Mexican presidents very seriously when they shake hands or hug “el commandante,” as President Lopez-Portillo used to say.
It’s all a big farce intended to throw a few crumbs to the very powerful and loud Mexican left.
Over the last 20 years, Mexican presidents have made the left very unhappy.
First, there is NAFTA, an agreement that the left believes killed small Mexican businesses and filled stores with foreign goods.
Second, there is Plan Merida, a deal negotiated between President Bush and President Calderon to provide US arms to fight the cartel war. (The left really hates this one)
The left is furious with President Pena-Nieto and has every desire to destroy his presidency. They are staging rallies, causing traffic jams and so on. Have you taken a flight to Mexico City lately? Have you seen the street rallies? Have you been tied in an endless traffic jam?
At the same time, he has to worry about Mexico not Cubans. That’s the blunt reality.
Fidel or Raul Castro got a handshake and a hug but NOT “the credit” that they desperately need.
That’s the bottom line of President Pena-Nieto’s visit: “Un abrazo pero no un centavo”! (“A hug but not one cent”)
My guess is that Fidel would have preferred a line of credit rather than another Mexican president using him for domestic reasons. The Castro dictatorship needs “cash” not more Mexican lefties singing the praises of the revolution.”
Let me repeat. I hate this “hug” as much as you do. However, I know that it’s not real. It is a cynical political step for Mexican domestic consumption.
“The Communist Party newspaper, Granma, said the Council of Ministers approved new regulations on Wednesday that “eliminate existing mechanisms of approval for the purchase of motor vehicles from the state.”
As a result, Granma said, “the retail sale of new and used motorcycles, cars, vans, small trucks and mini buses for Cubans and foreign residents, companies and diplomats is freed up.”
The Cuban state maintains a monopoly on the retail sale of cars.”
So la “nueva reforma” means that the rules have been relaxed but you still have to buy your car from “La Agencia de los Hermanos Castro”?
I guess that every “reforma” always has a connection to the pockets of the Castro brothers.
“Elsa Morejon is Dr Biscet’s wife and a human rights activist.
It was great to see her article in The Washington Post:
“A few weeks ago, President Obama invited my husband, Oscar Elías Biscet, and me to a dinner to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the creation of the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Many thought that in light of Obama’s efforts to improve relations between the United States and Cuba, Gen. Raúl Castro, Cuba’s president, would approve a passport for Oscar so that he could attend. Such was not the case.
Oscar is a physician, but he is not allowed to practice medicine. Amnesty International has named him a prisoner of conscience for his years in jail for defending human rights. He is a follower of the philosophy of Gandhi and King.
In 2007, President George W. Bush awarded Oscar the Medal of Freedom. But he could not receive the award in person because he was in prison, where he had been sentenced to a term of 25 years.
Oscar was released in 2011, but in many ways he’s still a prisoner because he can’t leave the island.”
Elsa speaks for so many and it was good to see a major US newspaper give her the space to tell the world the truth about Cuba.
Remember Dr Biscet the next time that you hear of all of those “bargains” about traveling to Cuba!
Show your support for Dr Biscet and other dissidents by taking “your vacation dollars” elsewhere!
Help us bring down Castro. Stop spending money in Cuba!
The official explanation is that Mexico wants to improve domestic relations with Cuba. The PRI is back in power and wants to “warm up” relations after the chill under PAN President Fox and Calderon.
Don’t buy that. This is about Mexico’s domestic politics. It’s always been about domestic politics between Mexico and Cuba.
I recall when Cuba built a huge embassy in Mexico City. It was intended to rival the US Embassy and project Cuba as an international leader.
Here is my AT post:
“So you improve relations with a country by writing off their debts? I am anxious to hear how Mexicans will react to this “generosity toward Cuba.”
I spoke to a couple of friends in Mexico on Sunday and they don’t understand this move.
One businessman said: “I sell to Cuba and we are down to cash up front before we ship anything.”
It makes no sense for Mexico to waive so much Cuban debt. My guess is that President Pena Nieto is “throwing a big bone” to the left. As we’ve reported before, President Pena Nieto has tackled a couple of the left’s sacred cows, the teachers’ unions and PEMEX, the oil monopoly.
He needs to distract the left and waiving Cuban debt is a good way to do it.”
Let me repeat: This is about Mexico and another president pandering to the left. The left is about to explode in Mexico over PEMEX reforms and that’s what this is about!
President Pena-Nieto is reminding the left that Mexico still loves Cuba and he is “eating” millions of dollars to prove it.
It’s also a recognition that Cuba is a terrible investment. In fact, it’s such a lousy investment that Mexico has to write off almost $500 million!
It must be tough being Raul Castro these days. He tries this or that but Cuba is still a disaster. He yells at the younger generation but they are not paying attention. He wants people to be more productive but they are not.
Cuba can not be fixed. There is no version of a “Perestroika cubano” around the corner. It won’t work in Cuba anymore than it did in the USSR.
It’s over in Cuba. We’re just waiting for the referee to blow the whistle and say that the game is officially over.
“What can Raúl Castro do to really straighten up Cuba’s economy?
Unquestionably, he must bury that asinine way to produce and organize society.
The system cannot be fixed.
Mikhail Gorbachev, who also tried to save communism, ended up admitting that such a goal was impossible, as happened in practically all of eastern Europe.
Why doesn’t Raúl Castro do this?
For three reasons at least, I suppose: for muddled ideological convictions that he has never shaken off; for clinging to power, and – the weightiest – for being emotionally incapable of accepting that he has spent 80 years defending wrong ideas.
It must be very hard to admit that the work of one’s whole life was a perfect blunder that generated massive damage.”
We will continue to watch Cuba and Cubans suffer more and more. There is no happy ending to this tragedy that the Castro brothers started in 1959.
The only good news is that the end is near. It is a lot closer that you think.
“Workers were exhorted to participate in this gargantuan effort through a massive propaganda campaign. All means of communication were devoted to the dissemination of the official rallying cry: “The Ten Millions Go” (Los Diez Millones Van).
A popular music group achieved almost immediate fame, echoing the government’s slogan by identifying themselves as Los Van Van.
The government controlled media, mass organizations, schools, and work centers were used to convince the population that the harvest represented another battle. The nation was encouraged to win this battle through discipline, sacrifice, and self-denial.
Yet, the miscalculations, mismanagement, censorship, emphasis on moral incentives, massive mobilization of unskilled workers to the cane fields and lack of sober planning led to the failure of this inordinate effort.
It is estimated that at the end of the 1970 harvest more than one million people had worked in the cutting, loading and transporting of the sugar cane.
The concentration of all resources and energies into achieving a ten million-ton sugar harvest also had adverse effects in other production sectors of the economy, with the exception of rice, fish, and eggs. Economic dependence upon the Soviet Union increased.
The cutting and milling of planted sugar cane that should have been reserved compromised the success of the 1971 harvest. In 1971 domestic consumption of sugar per capita was rationed to two pounds a month in order to meet export obligations.
Turning the harvest into the sole objective of every productive center, agency and mass organization, in the end, promoted the disorganization of the entire society.
It also contributed to further consolidate the on-going militarization process. The total social and economic cost caused by the 1970 harvest may never be properly measured.
Although the goal was not achieved (the 1970 harvest only reached 7,558,569 tons) the harvest occupied the lives of the Cuban people for an entire year and passed into history under the name of “The Ten Million Ton Sugar Harvest”.
“La zafra” failed because “los azucareros”, the people who had managed Cuba’s very successful sugar industry for decades, were in Miami, in prison or not listened to.
We are learning today that ObamaCare is one gigantic mess. Once again, we see that no one listened to those who knew a thing or two about health care or designing software.
CBS has an amazing report about the computer problems behind ObamaCare. The best part of the report is an interview with a software consultant who said that “he’d be embarrassed” to put out something like this.
Watch the video here:
The amazing thing is that The White House was aware of these problems but nevertheless went ahead with the release date.
Industry experts warned The White House that the computer was not ready, much like sugar industry experts warned Castro that a “10 million harvest” would not work.
My guess is that the Obama administration is 24/7 political enterprise devoid of any economic reality or critical input.
They didn’t listen to reason or people who warned several times that ObamaCare was not ready for prime time, lunch time, morning time, weekend time or any other time!
Like Castro and the “zafra de 10 millones”, Obama did not listen to the people who were warning him about the problems.
Like Castro and “la zafra”, Obama put ideology over common sense in the pursuit of a goal.
Castro never got his “zafra de 10 millones” but his irresponsible pursuit of the goal wrecked the Cuban economy and increased the island’s dependency on the USSR.
Wonder if ObamaCare will meet the same fate? Wonder what damage this mindless pursuit of ObamaCare will have on our economy today and tomorrow? We already know that it has had been a job wrecker so far.