I was so wound up after last night’s radio show that I couldnt get to sleep till the wee hours of the morning and right now I feel like I spent the night being used as a punching bag. The one thought that pitched a tent and made residence in my mind last night was this:
We are at a historical crossroad. On the cusp of a dawn. Despite all the “experts” and journalists assuring us that a transition in Cuba’s government has taken place, nothing has changed. As long as fidel castro is supposedly alive, regardless of whether he’s “calling the shots” or not, there has been no “transition.” fidel is the revolution and the revolution is fidel.
That said, and based upon that premise, what do you all think would occur, if, at the exact moment that the news of fidel castro’s death is announced, the US government lifts the embargo and all restrictions vis a vis Cuba?
Would raul castro be able to handle and maintain control of Cuba, or would no US sanctions lead to his demise?
Update: I’ve posted a couple of responses to this post below the fold that I received via email.
First, from Glenn S:
Your first port today leads to an even more interesting question.
How will the end game for Cuba’s communist party play out?
If history has anything to say here I think after Fidel dies;
– Someone/s in the military (it could be a week or it could be two years later) close to Raul, makes a deal with the evil empire.
– A military coup al la 1973 Chile ensues. It starts off with US Naval airstrikes on the ground-to-air defense systems the island has in place. US marines beach the island between each military outpost coordinated with their local counterparts.
– A small arms war breaks out between the US/Cuban counter-revolutionaries and the loyalist portions of the military. Raul and friends try to flee to Caracas via speedboat.
– The sanctions will be lifted but with Hollywood and Eurotrash’s constant whining there are still restrictions on entry and departure. A quiet period. Media is also restricted.
– Undesirables are deported, Embassies are closed and there protests of human rights violations by high-profile leftists at US Embassies and at airports around the world.
– Stories about what takes place during this time come to light a year after this occurs with Hollyweird taking the side of the left. Surprise! They tell stories and movies stating the atrocities that take place during this period ignoring the citizens that are dancing in the streets. These stories are trumped by the magnitude of the severe living conditions left by Fidel Inc. as well as documentation of some of their exploits. Including proposals with terrorists and genocidal dictators past and present. Many politicos and media celebrities will lose face here.
– Lawyers and Politicians, mostly from DC and Miami start entering the island with a free press. Now the fun really begins.
And second, from Dennis S:
Upon the announcement of el commandante’s demise, if I were President Bush, I would immediately call a full blown press conference. I would have my Secretary of Commerce and junior Senator from Florida standing beside me, along with other key Cuban Americans and Cuban patriots. I would announce that the United States was unilaterally ending its embargo of Cuba and establishing diplomatic relations. I would not have informed Cuba before this announcment.
My goal would be to use the moment to maximum advantage, catch little brother and his cronies completely off guard, and erase the excuse that the United States is responsible for all of Cuba’s problems. Castro, Inc. would squeal like pigs. If they fear anything, it is Hyatt or Hilton moving in and taking away the hotel fiefdoms that Raul has granted his officers in exchange for their loyalty. The government hand out centers would disappear when the first Wal Mart opens. The shots we would be firing would be the precise weapons that Castro, Inc. cannot withstand: economic!
When Raul gets in touch with me to sue for terms, I would not offer what Marcos got: a plane out and safe conduct for his family. Well, perhaps some family members but he personally would be left to the justice of the people. Although the family members would have to head for Venezuela or Spain because they would be dead people walking in Miami.
It never ceases to amaze me in conversations with Americans, most of whom are clueless about Cuba, that in swallowing the media propaganda that Raul is a more pragmatic version of his late older brother, that during the so called revolution, when these psychos were up in the mountains with only a few dozen fellow travelers, that when the latest Batista informer was discovered among them, that el maximo may have ordered the execution, but little brother was the one who led the victim off and actually put the revolver to their head. He is a cold blooded murderer. It is one thing to order death, another to carry it out by your own hand. So I have no sympathy whatsoever for the soon to be former el commandate II of the former Castro dynasty.
I mention Marcos because Castro, Inc. owes a lot of money and assets back to the people of Cuba in the form of Swiss bank accounts, etc. etc. Isn’t it sad that the former colonies of Spain seem to have a habit of allowing lying, murdering and greedy men to take control?
Mini-me in Caracas will also have a hissy fit. Perhaps he will offer little brother asylum before he gets the swift justice from the people that they have been denied for so many years.
My emotions and heart tell me to never end the embargo. My logic and head tells me to do it to our advantage at the precise moment when little brother is most vulnerable, when he is forced to finally admit that el maximo is “actually, really, completely and absolutely dead.”
Little brother will be overwhelmed and Cuba will be freed. I deeply believe the madness can be terminated quickly. If el commandante II hesitates, I think a swift, quick hit from a Delta or Seal team with a bullet to the head would do the trick.