More myth busting (UPDATED)

Since it’s being argued recent waves of Cuban exiles have significantly different political views than the “historic” exile community, I thought I’d take a deeper look at the most recent wave of the poll I’ve been referring to and that the media always seems to point to.
Remember that my theory* is that regardless of the political views these exiles may have when they first arrive, their position can (and often does) change by the time they become citizens and register to vote. The factors that I believe contribute to this is that a) there is a “cooling off” period in which the new arrival doesn’t want to talk about politics but is more interested in getting established economically in the US. b) after the cooling off period the person begins to be receptive to political messages which are primarily coming from the traditional exile community. c) they realize that contrary to what they were taught, the exile community does not eat its young. d) the immediate family of the new arrival also arrives. e) nostalgia for Cuba and desire for political change in Cuba becomes stronger.
So I’m going to look at the last two waves of Cuban exiles as denoted by the FIU poll: Those that came to the US between 1985 and 1994 and those that came from 1995 to 2007. In addition to being the two most recent these waves, both came after the Mariel boatlift. If my theory is correct there should be some differences of opinion between these two waves despite the fact neither wave can be considered to be of the “old guard” .
Not surprisingly, the latest wave is significantly more likely to say that travel to Cuba should be unrestricted (80.2% vs. a still high 67.1% for the next previous wave). As a side note, the numbers really drop off if the person arrived before 1985.
When it comes to ending the embargo, 39.6% of the most recent wave would like to end it right now but that number drops to 29.1% for the next most recent wave, which is close to the amount for the overall survey (28.7%). The balance, of course would like to see something happen in Cuba before lowering the embargo.
In terms of returning to the travel and remittance policies that were in place before President Bush tightened them in 2003, 85.7% of the most recent arrivals would like to see that vs. 71.1% (still a very strong majority) among the next most recent wave of exiles. The point is that there’s a trend. These opinions that the new arrivals are characterized by tend to lose at least some of their support among people that have been here just a few years longer.
Interestingly, it’s not the most recent wave of Cuban exiles that are the most likely to say they will return to live in a democratic Cuba, it’s that wave just previous to them.
Most recent wave (1995-2007): 26.9%
Next most recent (1985-1994): 37.4%
As far as citizenship goes it’s not surprising that the most recent wave has a low number of American citizens (19%) vs. the next previous wave (56.4%)
Among non-citizens the desire (planning) to become a citizen is high for both the most recent wave (90.1%) and the next most recent wave (93.8%).
Among those that are citizens, voter registration is lower for the most recent arrivals (60%) vs. the next most recent wave (84.5%).
And lastly among registered voters the majority are registered as Republicans for both the most recent wave (61.3%) and the next most recent wave (65.7%).
So the Democrats have their work cut out for them. In my opinion, they need to fight the natural tendency for the recent arrivals to somewhat change their views over time, they need to get them their citizenship faster, convince them to register to vote, and then go against the trend of registering Republican and finally getting them to vote for a Democratic candidate. Could it happen? Sure. I’m not holding my breath. More coming, I promise.
*UPDATE:

the·o·ry (th?’?-r?, thîr’?) Pronunciation Key
n. pl. the·o·ries
A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.

Theory is not the same as speculation. That doesn’t mean the theory is true but a theory is based upon observation of a phenomenon taking into account known facts.
The repeated re-election of hard-line Republican legislators by wide margins in Cuban-American districts in South Florida, despite the fact the pool of Cuban exiles is constantly refreshed is a known fact.
I tried to bring some other statistics to the table (statistics that come from a source of questionable impartiality, I might add) to test the theory. Whether you believe the theory or not is not my concern. But if you want me to abandon the theory you are going to have to bring more than some journalist’s opinion.