I don’t care one way or another about the travel restrictions…I’m never going to Cuba while the commies are there.
But why don’t we focus on what is really hurting us…and that is the fact that the USA refuses to allow the organization of an ARMED resistance against Cuba. How many of our fellow Cubans are rotting in US prisons for trying to organize real opposition in Cuba. Everybody knows the commies will NEVER leave on their own.

That was comment on another post about Obama’s strategy to differentiate himself from Hillary Clinton. As I analyzed that situation I realized that Obama’s advisers probably used data from that FIU poll of Cuban-Americans to devise the strategy. They noticed one of the “disconnects” in the data. And that’s this:
Only 22.9% of registered Cuban-American voters favor removing the embargo right now. The balance want something to happen in Cuba before removing it like fidel castro to be gone (7.5%), both fidel and raul being gone (12.8%), a free economy without democracy (5.9%), a democracy without a free economy (11.1%) or democracy and free economy (39.9%).
But the disconnect is that 42.3% of Cuban-American voters say unrestricted travel to Cuba should be allowed. If you open the question up to non-voters as well that number becomes a majority (55.2%). So the strategy is to be “for the embargo” but against the travel restrictions. As I mentioned, Obama must feel like he can use this to differentiate himself from Hillary during the primary season here in Florida and perhaps recruit new voters among the non-registered Cuban-Americans.
Well the FIU poll also has information that might be interesting for others to exploit:
55.1% of registered Cuban American voters favor direct U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government (47.2% strongly favor plus that 7.9% mostly favor).
Not only that, to commenter’s point above 69% of registered Cuban-American voters support military action by exile community to overthrow the Cuban government (57.7% strongly favor plus 11.3% that mostly favor).
Surprisingly, among those who are not registered to vote, the number supporting is 73% (59.5% strongly plus 13.9% mostly).
Perhaps one of the Republican candidates should come out in favor of removing the restrictions that prevent Cuban exiles from taking direct action to end the castro dictatorship. Following the same theory this would put the candidate that espouses this idea further away from the status quo and would appeal to voters and potential new registrants alike. There’s no reason for our government to continue to protect the castro regime under the Kennedy-Kruschev pact. And I guarantee you that, unlike Obama, a Republican candidate that came to the table with such an idea would not be receiving the warm endorsement of Cuban foreign minister Felipe Perez Roque or Cuban-American “moderates” the likes of Magda Montiel.

22 thoughts on “Strategery”

  1. IMHO, the strategery here seems to be to come up with a wedge issue that will devide the Cuban-Exile community. (divide and conquer) Since the C-A’s are percieved as a pretty monolithic swing vote that swings “R” most of the time, it’s in the best interest of the Dem party to drive a wedge into this voting block to minimize its electoral effect in a general election. From a Dem perspective, it makes sense to stir things up in Miami and have the Cubans debating each other over an insignificant yet divisive and passionate issue in hopes of eroding support for the Reps and move the discussion to the left for a Clinton-Obama ’08 ticket.

  2. The US politicians will never allow what you are suggesting, its better to have the Cubans in Miami where you can come to them at election time and get their unconditional support, all it takes is for politicians to tell us that they will keep the embargo in place and they will continue to be “tough” on Castro. Anyway, I doubt it very seriously that many of those that spend most of their time blogging from the comfort of their home in Miami will go to Cuba and take part in military action. It will be much easier if we start going back every weekend and sharing with our fellow Cubans our democratic views. Maybe there will be some of us who go back as “tourist” who will be brave or crazy enough to take actions like the Guatemalan man who bombed those hotels a few years ago. Calling those who will visit their relatives in Cuba communist and supporting the current policies will never bring democracy to Cuba.
    What we need is the following: 1. zero immigration from Cuba to the US for the next two years, I mean nobody gets out. 2. Allow Cubans to visit the island as much as possible. 3. Keep the embargo and pressure in the world community. 4. Be there with our fellow Cubans and maybe join dissident groups or perhaps protest with the mothers in white or provide dissidents with resources. If we do this, the turmoil will start in weeks, the communist won’t know what the hell to do exept maybe put people in jail and kill a few , if this happens the US government will probably get involved. The current policy wont work and we will have no immediate role in Cuba. It is a policy by well intentioned people want to see Cuba democratic but that probably dont want to return to Cuba, they care more about US politics. This is not about democrat/republican or being a communist, this should be about how to achive freedom for Cuba as soon as possible and about exiles having a role in the future of Cuba. I do not care too much about American domestic policies because my heart is in Cuba. I could care less about issues like gay marriage, abortion and who is tougher on Communist. I want the failed policies of the last 40 years to change for the sake of Cuba

  3. Roberto thanks for the easy dig at those who blog comforably from their homes. It was an easy cheap shot and you took it. What I was talking about was a change in US policy to allow something not that that something would actually happen. And it was based on the premise that one was planning a political strategy to win the Cuban vote in the Republican primary. The flip side of what Obama is doing. If all the politicians come and “talk tough” there is no differentiating them on the Cuba issue.
    Maybe you couldn’t see my tongue planted fimly in cheek since I’m blogging comfortably from my home.
    If the US said it wouldn’t take any more Cubans today, what do you think the Cuban reaction would be tomorrow?
    Can you say balsero crisis?
    While you and I may want a balsero crisis to force the US’s hand the US does not want that. That should be abundantly clear by now.

  4. bro, sorry about the blogging dig. Im just very frustated about what we in exile are doing about Cuba, it has not work and it wont. We need creative ideas on Cuba not the same old stuff. Obama could care less about Cuba, he is a US politician, but i think we need to be there not here. The easiest way to be there now is by visiting as a tourist. BTW, keep blogging its fun

  5. Roberto, you wrote,

    …I doubt it very seriously that many of those that spend most of their time blogging from the comfort of their home in Miami will go to Cuba and take part in military action.

    I know you “apologized” for this, but I have to ask: what is it with you people who comment or post on blogs and then throw cheap shots at other bloggers who do the same?! I get that all the time from people who disagree with me. The obvious hypocrisy of someone slamming me or anyone else for doing what they are also doing is astounding.
    What do you expect us to do? Violate the Federal Neutrality Act and go to prison? Violate US laws? Are you willing to do this, since you’re such a macho man?

  6. Roberto, I accept the apology. What we try to do is, in whatever small measure we can, try to shape the general public opinion about Cuba. Even if we fail, at least it’s cathartic. And we give the regime one more thing to worry about.

  7. Henry, I agree with you 200% on the FACT that the US govt. will NOT allow Cubans to organized and take the war to Castro. The US govt.under a democratic President help destroy the Escambray Front by preventing Arms and men from reaching the freedom fighters. The organization that I was a member of, “Movimiento Nacionalista Cristiano” was put out of business by the US Govt. Many Cuban men and women were arrested and served time for attempthing to take the war to Castro and aiding our people inside Cuba. Many Cubans are still in prision OUTSIDE Cuba for doing just this. Roberto may feel that many of us are fighting this war from our living rooms but I personly know many Cubans who were arrested and put into Prision, including myself.
    Henry Agueros Garces.

  8. I think something has to be cleared up for all of those who keep saying “We need creative ideas on Cuba not the same old stuff.” This Administration had had many creative ideas and has kept Cuba as a priority policy item; even while Iraq, Korea, Agh. have dominated the spectrum… This President has done more to stregthen internal opposition, improve TV/Radio Marti and break through Castro’s jamming, deliever humantarian assistance, equipment, etc… than any other Pers. before. They have not been doing the same old stuff, CAFC I & II had great ideas many of which are being implemented. Family travel, remittences and sanctions are but a small part of U.S-Cuba policy. The purpose is to restrict hard-currency from ending up in government cofers.
    So before Obama and his jolly followers accuse of panderng to C-A and nothing else they should look at the facts!

  9. George, I know that many of us who are here and unable to take an active role in the cuban issue feel like the only thing we can do is support the embargo and write about it in forums like this or talk about it outside of cafes on calle ocho or watch el canal 41, La nueva costumbre de Miami. Well, its time we do something else. Im tired of hearing stuff like, well the US doesnt let us do anything. True, there are a few people who are in jail for being caught smugling arms into Cuba but if someone really wanted to do something they could. I was just talking to a guy who says he knows a Cuban refugee smuggler that picks up people at a seaside farm in Cuba, he goes back and forth all the time, why couldnt other anti castro people do the same.
    My feeling is that there arent enough Cubans who are willing to let it all lay on the line and those who are have gotten old and tired. Thats why I think we are better served by going there on a regular basis as tourist. We would have a lot more options.
    I dont fault Cubans that dont want to go to Cuba and do as I suggest, but I dont like those who think that the fight can be waged from the comfort of our homes in Florida. Its ok to let the world know how bad Cubas government is, but Im against policies which only goal is to make things bad on my relatives in Cuba so that they will eventually become so hungry and desparate that they will rebel against the government. We must go there however we can, and join them in their struggle. Fidel is dead, this is the time for exiles to become Cubans again, not Cuban American but Cuban.
    The people in this forum should organized un retiro (about 20 people) to Santiago De Cuba and then have a peaceful protest maybe get beaten up a little. Man, that would get more attention than anything a US congress person could do. Just think a bunch of Menoyo’s with real cojones!!

  10. Roberto,
    How could you! You have just violated a major C-A rule!
    Using Menoyo and Cojones in the same sentence is an outrage!!!!
    BTW, I believe in peaceful change, but grab a rifle and I will be right behind you…

  11. I would not underestimate the number of Cubans that have arrived from 1994 until today (many with military experience including officers) may want to participate in some sort of action against the regime. If you look at the poll I cited, the non-voters (many of which are non-citizens signalling that they are more recent arrivals) favor this approach even more than the established citizen-voters. Just don’t have it be illegal to conspire to overthrow castro. If people don’t avail themselves of the “hands off” approach then we can say that there wasn’t the will to fight, but not before.

  12. Roberto:
    My problem in traveling to Cuba while the present regime is in power is this:
    Cuban exiles have to ask the Cuban government for permission to enter.
    Cuban exiles have to purchase a special passport to travel.
    Cuban exiles have to pay more money than other turists.
    And worst of ALL, Cuban exiles have to watch their people prostitute themselves for a few dollars, be abused and treated like second, no, make that third class citizens in their own country.
    You don’t have aproblem with that?
    Cuban exiles have to pay

  13. oño Roberto,
    You just dont get it. I just told you that the might of the US armed Forces stopped men and supplies from getting to Cuba which cause the fall of the Escambray Front. You need to go back and read the History of organizations should as Alfa 66, Comandos Libres, Movimiento de Recuperacion Revolucionaria, Movimiento Nacionalista Cubano, Movimiento Nacionalista Cristiano, Rescate, etc..etc.
    The fact that you spoke with someone who makes a trip to and from Cuba(?) Picking up people….Caballero, you really believe the govt. (castro) does not know this? Its all about HARD CASH that the dictatorship needs.
    Menoyo has cojones? Please let us know WHERE you have seen them because as far as most Cubans know, ese gallego lost his cojones years ago.
    Grow up Roberto!

  14. Where did I say that menoyo has cojones? He hasnt protested in Cuba. I said if someone from the exile community did, it would be like Menoyo with Cojones.
    Jewbana-You are wrong, you can go to Cuba without a Cuban passport and they wont question you much when you get to Cuba.
    Cubanredneck- el mamapinga eres tu, so mariconson. Yo no te ilsulte a ti pendejo.

  15. Oyeme Robertico:
    Where’s the answer to my other questions? Especially the one about witnessing your people being mistreated and abused. How do you handle that dude? Hay tener gandinga pa ver eso y no hacer na.

  16. Jewbana you make no sense to me. I dont know if you’ve read my posts. What Im telling you is that we can do more to bring democracy to Cuba by being there than here. Most Cubans who live in the United States can go to Cuba, eventhough its illegal, with a US passport by going through a third country. That, is an uncontroverted fact.
    The suffering of the Cuban people is very real, it does not stop happening simply because you are not witnessing it. Cubans have some real issues, but not everyone is a Jinetera or a Chivato. I have very close family there and they hate Fidel, but they dont belive everything I tell them about this wonderful country. You cannot imagine how brainwashed they are. My relatives live in the countryside, they do not have access to any news other than government propaganda.
    As I said before, you can support the current policy of not engaging these poor souls or you can be there with them. I choose the latter because I think it will make Cuba a civil society much faster. I hope that when Fidel dies Cubans will embrace democracy from day one. But i think is going to take a lot of work by those of us who have lived in freedom, I have already started converting them, you can choose to stay away from it beacuse no tienes gandinga. Yo quiero a mi gente y los apollo con mi dinero y mis ideas.
    BTW, I agree with the embargo as a symbolic measure, but free-Cuban to opressed-Cuban contact is fundemantal for a future democratic Cuba. Anyway, I dont want to argue this point anymore, I have these arguments with my dad all the time, lets just hope that they announce soon que se murio el caballo, my family in Cuba will be very happy!!!

  17. OK Roberto:
    I understand your points and I respect your opinion. But it burns me to give that regime even one red cent of my hard earned dollars. One of the organizations I work with is Cuba Corps. They are involved in what you’re trying to do, but on a larger scale. Look them up
    It is a humanitarian organization. They are classified as a 501 (c) 3 corp, and members of congress have already sent letters supporting the project. It’s similar to the Peace Corps, but only for Cuba.
    Oh, and BTW, I also have close relatives there. One of them is a doctor that lives in Santi Espiritus. I speak with her almost every week but because she’s religious, the commies haven’t been able to turn her. Even when they threatened to take her license and leave her homeless. She knows what the logros of the robolucion are; miseria, tortura, y falta de libertad among others.

  18. Roberto, you have read my mind. I’ve become convinced that the only way Cuba will ever regain it’s freedom is if a “significant” number of us exiles return, join whichever dissident group most appeals to us and get harassed, beat up and imprisoned right along with them. Every day I read about the heroes of the Cuban dissident movement and feel shame. Shame that they give so much while I do nothing. Now I just have to find my cojones, I’m sure they are around here somewhere…

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