Well there’s a lot of ways to look at the results of the caucuses but I thought I’d try to look at them through the prism of positioning.
Among Republicans the four candidates that positioned themselves as bona fide conservatives were Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter who earned 34%, 25%, 13% , and 1% of the vote respectively. That’s a 73% total.
However, who the real article is here is up for debate. Both Romney and Huckabee have a track record that doesn’t necessarily match their rhetoric.
The moderates (i.e. sometimes liberal) candidates were Rudy Giuliani and John McCain who got 13% and 3% of the votes of the caucus goers. It should be noted that Rudy took a pass on campaigning in the Hawkeye state and McCain has never done well there because he’s spoken out against farm subsidies which are big issue to Iowans. So that’s 16% for the moderate candidates.
Ron Paul is positioning himself as a libertarian and earned 10% of the vote.
The populist Tom Tancredo, who had already dropped out of th race, got 1% of the vote.
I’m not really surprised by the results. The candidates that positioned themselves as old-fashioned conservatives led the field in Iowa, a pretty conservative state for Republicans.
On the Democrat side the candidates that positioned themselves as Liberals and agents of “change” were Obama and Edwards who gained 36% and 30% of the vote respectively. I suppose you could add Dodd, who dropped out of the race tonight after obtaining 1% .
Hillary, who has been campaigning as more of a moderate (whether she is or not is a different matter) got 30%. Others that could be considered as positioning themselves as moderate are Bill Richardson who got 2% and Joe Biden, 1%.
This was certainly a bad day for Hillary who has been leading in the national polls all along.
As a Republican the candidate I’d like to see earn the Democratic nomination (meaning the one who would be easiest to beat) is John Edwards. His speech tonight was an attack on capitalism, corporate America, and wealthy people. In short, it’s what’s most despicable about liberals, rich bastards playing the politics of class warfare and pandering.
If I had to pick one candidate from the Republican field it would still be Thompson. In a two way race between Huckabee and Romney I’d probably go with Romney. If it were between Rudy and McCain I’d go with McCain.
9 thoughts on “Iowa Caucus Results, What They Really mean.”
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The thing that is scary about Edwards is that people fall for his crap. He is a darn good actor. People buy his act and think that he is sincere. He is sincerely interested in what is best for John Edwards, but not so much anyone else.
Sadly, I don’t believe the Republicans have a viable candidate at this time. And, don’t underestimate Edwards.
The Media are rooting for a Democratic president. For the past eight years they’ve been incapable of reporting on President George Bush’s actions –and Republicans overall- without causing the story to be slanted. They’ve done nothing but to criticize Bush, his administration, and the war on Iraq. This is a no-win situation for the GOP. God help us if a Democrat wins the White House! I don’t think I could stomach four years of Media cheerleading.
A few issues ago National Review had Obama on their cover as a modern day Jimmy Carter. I think they’ve got his number.
FAIRTAX.org!!!! go Huckabee!!!
Jonathan,
The people that fall for that crap are the leftist base of the Democrat party. Independents and Reagan Democrats don’t. That’s why I think he’ll be easier to beat than Hillary or Obama who are just as liberal but whose rhetoric is not.
The results last night felt like a cold shower on a cold Miami morning to Thompson supporters. Why? Because Huckabee’s 32% could have easily been Thompson’s. Thompson, who is probably the most consistent, well-rounded conservative, lost much of his own base to Huckabee. I’m not referring to the evangelicals, but to the staunch conservatives in Iowa.
It seems all but over for Thompson unless he can pull a huge rabbit out of his hat in the next few weeks. Too bad, because he had serious momentum last summer. His campaign must be wondering where they lost the momentum. I for one see a serious lack of fire and conviction in Thompson. He may feel it inside, but the feeling is not getting through in a field of competent candidates. Huckabee, with much less balyhoo and hype, has been able to pull it off because he comes across as both impassioned and real. Hats off to him, although I’m still pulling for Fred.
Thompson’s loss of votes was with evangelicals and his cabeza dura. He refused to meet with James Dobson and amend for his ways thus no endorsement.
James Dobson is to the evangelicals as Val is to us Babalu bloggers regarding influence……they trust Dobson.
G.W. Bush knew that without the evangelical vote there could be no win. Why did evangelicals vote for Huck over Fred? Because too many blue bloods pander to the church folks and then stab them in the back like papa Bush did & GWB with the same sex marriage amendment. Bush did not even push or try for the damn thing.
Bottom line is that Fred should never have tangled with Dobson because Christians trust the man.
As a Christian I wanted Fred to win because HE IS the most conservative candidate out there……it was a sad day en mi casa last night (sniff, sniff) 🙁
Surprising since it is the raison d’etre of this blog is what this means for Cuba policy. Obama is more likely than any viable candidate to ditch the embargo.
Let’s face pray all we want there is little to no chance that a Republican will top a Dem this election