Tracking electability

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Well, one of the big arguments that we’ve heard about supporting John McCain has to do with the idea of electability. This is based on the premise that a so-called moderate Republican will have more appeal to independents and Democrats. I think the premise is flawed. The last Republican nominee to run as a “moderate” was George H.W. Bush. We all know what happened to him when he did the moderate thing and raised taxes “because it was necessary”.
One of the pieces of evidence that is put forward in favor of the electabiliy argument is head-to-head polls that have been conducted that show McCain wins against Obama and/or Clinton. I’m dubious but not because of an inherent distrust in polls. It’s just that polls are a snapshot in time. It’s difficult to know how people are going to be thinking in November. Especially since most voters simply aren’t engaged at this point. Remember when Rudy Giuliani was the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination?
But it’s out there so I thought I’d keep track of such polls as we move closer to the general election. I have charted McCain’s poll numbers vs. Clinton and Obama. The polls are from Rasmussen as published at Real Clear Politics. Why Rasmussen? Because they have been consistently polling the match-up for more than a year and also Rasmussen has proven to be more accurate than some other pollsters.
So here we go. McCain vs. Clinton:
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And McCain vs. Obama:
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The first thing you’ll notice of course is that McCain is currently polling ahead of both potential opponents. That’s good news for him I suppose. But you can see that he’s trailed both Democrats for substantial periods during 2007.
The other thing that we see is that the numbers don’t even come close to adding up to 100 due to the dreaded undecideds. We see 12% undecided in the both of the latest head-to head polls. That 12% is twice the difference between Obama and McCain. Which means we really don’t know who would win an election between these two if it were held today.
I’ll be tracking these polls moving forward and will post updates here. We’ll see just how electable McCain is as the Democrats begin attacking him with the aid of the MSM that has long been his ally.

3 thoughts on “Tracking electability”

  1. I think undecideds would vote for Obama, because they will want change. Now with Hillary, I have no clue what undecideds will do.
    I’m thinking that I’ll either stay home or do a write in ballot.

  2. No matter how you slice it come November having an (R) next to your name is not going to help. It has nothing to do with McCAin or Romney – it is all W and those that are in the Congress that messed things up.

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