A Bleak Forecast

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Today’s Miami Herald Tribune offers a small report on the response of some UM professors to yesterday’s events in Cuba. The consensus? Dismal. Best quote:
”There is no reform. We are not looking at a Chinese model. We are not even looking at a Vietnamese model. This presents a very bleak outlook for Cuba,” said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the university’s Institute for Cuban & Cuban-American Studies, during a panel discussion at the school.
Now let’s see if their learned views have any effect on the Pollyannas running around rejoicing in the “transition” to a “pragmatic” Raul.

3 thoughts on “A Bleak Forecast”

  1. Wow they deduced all this after one day? Do they read minds?
    Russia took 12 years to reform its economy
    China took 20 years to reform its economy from agriculture to labor intensive
    Vietnam took 30 plus years to get where it is today
    Lets see, island nation with high literacy rate but no real natural resources. I would suspect this will be (if embarked) a very painful process that could take decade or more if the leaders have wised up. Hey you should check out and do some research who moved China/Russia economy’s…U.S. economists on loan….

  2. What they deduced was that Raul’s “appointments”
    were aged hardliners and his speech promised only minimal changes. They call them as they see them, as do you.
    Second, Cuba is not without resources, natural or otherwise. Aside from nickel and the reputed oil deposits to name two, preCastro Cuba had real industries, the vestigial traces of which still linger. There is also no reason why Cuba should have to import the bulk of its food, if nothing else.
    Finally in terms of the Russian model. I would hope it is one Cuba could avoid. I would not boast of the “American economists.” Surely you don’t mean Jeffrey Sachs and his Harvard cronies who nearly killed the Russian economy with “shock therapy”? In fact, George Soros had to loan the government money to pay the pensioners starving in the streets , although some wags would have it that this occured after he trashed the ruble.

  3. Lemmesee now, Island nation, Literate Population, somewhat light on natural resources. Could CUBA be the “Next Japan?” Why not? Pre-Castro living standards were higher than Japan. Something to consider in the years to come. -S-

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