Roger Noriega on Cuba

Roger Noriega was an assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and United States ambassador to the Organization of American States in the George W. Bush administration. He has penned a great column about the monarchical succession in Cuba for the American Enterprise Institute. Some excerpts:

Some of those counseling “stability” may be concerned about a mass migration of Cubans fleeing chaos. It is time to rethink that argument, which is usually wielded by those policymakers counseling a “go slow” approach. The best hope for avoiding a dangerous mass migration of Cubans to our shores in a post-Fidel world is to help them press for real change at home. If we stand by as their dreams of a new future are dashed by Raúl, we are inviting a burst of migration by a new generation of desperate Cubans…
The elder Castro has made it abundantly clear that his nonnegotiable demand was an abject surrender of our principled opposition to his dictatorship. Regardless of any U.S. concessions, the Castro regime has always made clear that it will never loosen its grip on power. Yet, there are those who continue to recommend patience for and generous gestures to Fidel’s brother, key coconspirator, and handpicked successor…
Recall that Raúl played a direct role in ordering and organizing the premeditated murder of four innocent people aboard two U.S. rescue planes in international air space twelve years ago.[2] Before that, he was caught abetting cocaine smuggling to the United States through Cuban territory. To cover his tracks in that case, Raúl organized the show trial and televised execution of several of his chums who testified to delivering satchels of narcodollars directly to him…
Despite decades of evidence to the contrary, there are academics and others still hoping that the Castro revolution will redeem itself. Sifting through the pile of manure that is what is left of the regime, they are still looking for a pony. And so it is that those hoping for a soft landing for the regime expected Raúl to reveal his receptivity to reforms by naming the revolutions’s official inside-the-box thinker and economic tinkerer, Carlos Lage, as first vice president. But the seventy-six-year-old Raúl did what his long record predicted he would, designating hard-line military rogues to vice presidential slots…
Nothing in Raúl’s slavish service to a communist ideal supports the suggestion that he is a frustrated reformer straining at his brother’s leash…
In the nineteen months since Raúl has been in charge in Cuba, he has delivered no meaningful economic or political change. Instead, he has surrounded himself with militant defenders of the old order…
There is scant evidence that Raúl is a closeted reformer; there is even less evidence that this wily and ruthless survivor is either stupid or suicidal. He knows better than anyone that an illegitimate and failed regime cannot risk the instability that comes with letting people think for themselves…
The embargo is one tool in the service of a policy that recognizes that every day Fidel’s chorus line of thugs keeps kicking is a tragedy for Cubans everywhere. That tough policy insists on change as a precondition for normal economic and political relations with the United States. For example, U.S. policy calls for the release of all political prisoners, the dismantling of the police state, and the promise of free and fair elections. These are standards with which virtually every imperfect nation of the Western Hemisphere–rich or poor, Right or Left–complies today (with the possible exception of Venezuela).[7] It makes good sense to reserve any relaxation of U.S. sanctions to encourage a new brand of Cuban leader who is not obsessed with tormenting and oppressing his countrymen…
Most people accept that change will have to come from the Cuban people themselves. But great care must be taken to avoid doing anything to undermine the ability of the Cuban people to seize the opportunity to press for real change. It would be a historic tragedy if foreigners were to intervene directly in Cuba’s transition, which includes doing anything that confers legitimacy on a thug who has no other claim to it…
When a leading contender for the U.S. presidency, Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.), says he will sit down to meet with Raúl Castro without preconditions, his words matter. If that pledge is repeated or that candidate elected, the perception that the United States will accept Raúl as a legitimate interlocutor will buy time for the hard-liners to consolidate their regime and intimidate their opposition. Worse yet, it will marginalize genuine would-be reformers inside the regime and demoralize the democratic opposition that has come to see the United States as their most important friend…
The late-February visit to Havana by Vatican secretary of state Tarcisio Cardinal Bertone was an extraordinarily reckless gesture. Being photographed with Cuba’s new “jailer” and making it clear publicly that the Vatican accepted the de facto succession was a diplomatic coup for Raúl. Days later, Bertone discredited himself thoroughly when he conveyed Raúl’s offer to release prisoners of conscience being held arbitrarily in Cuba in exchange for Cuban spies convicted and jailed in the United States for acts of espionage and, in one case, murder.[8] Bertone’s disgraceful performance should serve as a cautionary tale for other diplomats who may also be duped by the new Cuban dictator…