District 21 Update

The Herald posted a short article about a meeting Raul Martinez (AKA masa boba) having with a group of Venezuelans on Tuesday. The interesting thing about the article is the statistics about party affiliation in the district. The Herald states that there are 124,744 Republicans registered in the district compared to 101,267 Democrats and 71,208 independents.
The Herald points out that since 2006 the Republican number has decreased by 4,558 but the Democrat number has only increased by 111. Which begs the question, if Republicans aren’t becoming Democrats where are they going? There’s a few possibilities. The obvious conclusion the Herald wants you to draw is that they are becoming independent. But the Herald article doesn’t give the 2006 number for independents or the growth number for independents.
There are other possibilities too. First is that Republicans are leaving the district, either moving out or perhaps dying. That certainly can account for some of the losses. If so, it’s possible that the residents who are replacing them are either independent voters or perhaps (very likely) not registered to vote. We know the city of Hialeah is almost completely contained within the 21st congressional district and that Hialeah has been receiving many of the new arrivals from Cuba. These are people who have not yet attained citizenship and therefore can’t register to vote.
Regardless of the cause of the decline, the current numbers are interesting because they show how important independent or unaffiliated voters are going to be.
If we assume 100% turnout and that Republicans and Democrats will vote with their party in the congressional election (gigantic assumptions that will certainly not hold true) then Raul Martinez would need to carry 2/3 of independent voters to make up the difference in affiliated voters.
Now I think that masa boba will probably take a few Republicans with him because of his popularity among Hialeah residents. We’ve discussed this before. But in analyzing this further, I’m not sure he’s going to get as many as he thinks he might get. Normally running for congress during a presidential election cycle is good for the candidates that are of the same party of the likely president. They call this the coattail effect. But since Martinez is a Democrat that needs a lot of his former constituents who are Republicans to vote for him , having Barack Obama at the top of the ballot may hurt him. Hialeah Republicans might have an affinity for their former mayor but one has to think that the last thing they want to do is give one more seat in congress to the Democrats with a likely Democrat president coming.
It will certainly be interesting to watch as it unfolds. As always you can check out RaulMartinez08.com to learn more about the would-be congressman from the donkey party.

5 thoughts on “District 21 Update”

  1. His masa may be boba, but he’s anything but bobo (though self-delusion and ambition have been known to incite folly).

  2. Te gusto el apodito huh ?
    LOL I told my father I revealed Raulito’s High School nick name and he was rolling on the sofa laughing, LMAO

  3. VIVA RAUL MARTINEZ AND JOE GARCIA! Verguenza contra dinero. Max Lesnik and Aruca are busy helping me campaign on behalf of Martinez and Garcia. We have already raised $327.45 among us. We are waiting to hear from Hugo Chavez before we have to report campaign contributions at the end of this month. PATRIA O MUERTE, VENCEREMOS.

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