21st District over time

Below the fold is a visual representation of party affiliation percentages in Florida’s 21st congressional district (presently represented by Lincoln Diaz-Balart – R) since 2002 (when the current districts were drawn up and first used).
As you can see there has been a decline in Republican percentages in the last six years. But the big shift was not in the last two, as the Herald claimed in a recent article, but rather in the previous four.
Another observation is that the big winner has not been the Democratic party but instead NPA (No party affiliation).
Of course people don’t vote strictly down party lines and voter registration drives in this presidential election year could change these percentages slightly. As usual this election is going to depend on turnout and which way independent voters go. I’m sure there are people reading this that think that independent mean Democrat. I wouldn’t be so sure.


5 thoughts on “21st District over time”

  1. I’ve been following the mainstream media’s claim that younger Cuban Americans are changing party affiliation [from republican to democrat] and from “hardliners” to Castro appeasers, [i.e. lift-the-embargo without any conditions and dialog with the tyrant advocates] for years now.
    This has been going on to my knowledge–at least in the New York Times [the paper that I am most familiar with]—since the early 1990s. That is to say, for approximately 18 years. So, according to them, for 18 year’s the younger generation has been changing. Funny thing is that there is no empirical evidence that this is happening, but, this hasn’t stopped them, they keep on repeating it anyway. [How does the saying about a lie repeated a thousand times go?]
    I believe that this constant drumbeat goes hand-in-hand and is as a result of the rise of the Cuban American power base back in the late 80s, early 90s with the creation of the then powerful Cuban American National Foundation, and the election of Cuban-Americans to the US congress starting with hardliner Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
    The MSM taking a cue from the regime has been trying to marginalize Miami Cubans [i.e the despised “Miami Mafia”] for years now. Their modus operandi is to make us seem so outrageously far to the right, so extremist as to push us out of any meaningful discussion on Cuba and therefore isolate us completely and totally. And what better way to do this than to make even our younger generation disagree and disapprove of us. That is why they always make references to a small coterie of “aging” [“aging” is the operative word here] right winged batistianos who want to go back to Cuba [not to free her] but to reclaim their lost properties.

  2. Another thing that is not being taken into account is that many people register Independent because they do not wish to be bothered receiving junk mail from either party. I have at least 10 friends registered as Independents for that reason but they still vote Republican. My daughter is registered as an independent because the day she went to register at age 18, she still had not decided on either party and they “encouraged” her to register as an Independent at the voters registration office, she has since seen the “light” and votes Republican, but has not changed her affiliation because of lack of time or need. Her boyfriend is American and was a staunch democrat, until I started “educating” him on politics and the real situation in Cuba. He had only had his professors at UM as guidance, but now wears a CAMBIO bracelet and proudly says “Viva Cuba Libre” whenever we have a toast. He’s voting straight republican this year…I’m so proud of him!

  3. Orgullosadesercubana,
    Now that you mention it, I’m example of another INDEPENDENT who always votes Republican. By the way, I consider myself a liberal, because of my view on certain domestic issues, but I’m as HARDLINE on Cuba as they come. That’s another thing, I know many Cubans who are liberals and even democrats [Senator Bob Menendez, anyone?], but hard on Castro. Of course, to the simpletons at the MSM, anyone who is liberal and a democrat is automatically a lift-the-embargo Castro appeaser.
    Not that any of this really matters to the MSM, I genuinely feel that they keep up with this constance drumbeat about the generational change among Cubans out of pure malice and out of a wishful desire that the younger generations will one day genuinely embrace Castro, Inc. and thereby destroy our powerbase. They really want to disenfranchise us and this constant talk of a schism in our community is part and parcel of that campaign.
    I remember after the Elian debacle how the New York Times gloated that our power base had been irrevocably destroyed and instead of that happening we became more united and stronger and ended up by voting a Republican President into the White House and gaining two federal senators, one congressman and one cabinet position.

  4. Ray, the MSM has been reporting on the supposed generational shift since at least 1983. I have a piece that will supposedly be published at Pajamas Media any day now that explores where this idea began and why they have gotten it wrong, at least until now.
    BTW, I think something to consider is that while the evidence is showing that this particular congressional district is becoming less Republican, I think it’s obvious that it’s also becoming less Cuban. We’ve had an influx of people from other countries and other parts of the country.
    A few years back the MSM added another story line to the “generational shift myth” which was exactly that. That the Hispanic vote in Florida is no longer strictly Cuban. And that’s true but it’s a manipulation in a way because they change the venue from South Florida to Florida and the subject from Cubans to Hispanics. Cubans in Miami can’t really influence Puerto Ricans in Orlando.
    The other thing to consider since we’re talking about liberal and conservative is that none of the three congresspersons from down here are hard core conservatives. Their voting records are in the same neighborhood as the “Maverick” John McCain. They are painted by the media however to be some sort of right wing reactionaries.

  5. Henry,
    If the MSM has been reporting on this generational shift among Cuban-Americans since 1983, then this is undoubtedly a direct response to the establishment of the then politically powerful Cuban American National Foundation. What a coincidence that the Foundation was founded in 1981 and that this campaign started a mere two years later! Things that make you go “hmmmm.”
    Regarding the MSM’s tactic of playing with words, I’ve seen that too. I’ve seen articles where they start talking about Cuban Americans and then in mid-sentence, they say, and according to the latest poll, “Hispanics” are voting this way or that way as if “Hispanic” which encompasses over 20 other national groups is interchangeable with Cubans! Sleazy is the only way to describe the MSM.
    By the way, another thing this brings up is the extreme contrast between the way that Cuban Americans are treated as opposed to other groups. For instance, the MSM is forever advocating for “empowerment” when it comes to “Latinos” “Chicanos” “blacks” and other “minorities,” but when it comes to us, it’s all about “schisms,” “aging hardliners” “divisions” etc..
    I look forward to reading your piece in Pajamas Media.

Comments are closed.