Florida’s 25th Congressional District over time

Below the fold is a visual representation of party affiliation percentages in Florida’s 25th congressional district (presently represented by Mario Diaz-Balart – R) since 2002 (when the current districts were drawn up and first used).
As with the other districts I’ve analyzed, you can see there has been a decline in Republican percentages in the last six years.
Another observation is that the big winner has not been the Democratic party but instead NPA (No party affiliation).
Notably, the invitation to the Rangel fundraiser for Diaz-Balart’s opponent, Joe Garcia misrepresented (lied about) these numbers. Not only that, they claim that “independents in the district…lean strongly Democrat.”
I wouldn’t bank on that if I were them. In 2006, Mario Diaz-Balart obtained 58.5% of the vote. Assuming that turn-out was proportional and voting went down party lines and every Republican voted for him and every Democrat voted for his opponent, Michael Calderin, then Diaz-Balart must have have carried 2/3 of non-affiliated voters. Of course that’s a simplified model but it’s obvious that Diaz-Balart could not have won without significant independent support. The most recent real data just doesn’t support their theory. But as we have seen, Democrats don’t like the truth to get in the way of a good story.

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