As you all know by know, I’m fascinated with the media and its infatuation with the idea of shifting political loyalty among Cuban-Americans. Despite the fact that the little data that is available shows no such shifting, these stories make it into the local and national press all the time.
The fact is that there is no way to know exactly how many Cubans vote for a particular party or candidate. Election results are reported by precinct, congressional district, county and state. They are not reported by ethnicity, country of origin, religion, etc. The result is that there’s a lot of room to write stories and make claims that can never be proven or disproven.
That’s why I’ve decided to set the scene for this upcoming election by posting the 2004 election results from Miami-Dade County for reference:
George W. Bush: 46.61%
John Kerry: 52.89%
Presumably, if the Cuban American population is shifting toward the Democrats, then Obama should do at least as well in the county as Kerry did in 2004. Of course there are other factors involved. Miami-Dade has a significant number of Jewish voters and there’s some debate about whether they will stick with the Democratic candidate and our county also has a large number of Blacks that will presumably be energized and turn out in record numbers. All that said, Barack Obama should fare significantly better than John Kerry did if it’s true that Cubans are abandoning the Republican party in the numbers being alleged.
We shall see.