More on Cuban-American Voting Patterns

The oft-used theory of a generational shift which was supposed to come to fruition in the recently concluded general elections continues to evolve, according to our favorite South Florida daily. The past two days, it was revealed that it was really non-Cuban Hispanics, not Cuban-Americans, that gave Obama a boost, but exit polls suggested sizable Obama support from young Cuban-Americans. However, it looks like the results of the three congressitional races involving Cuban-American incumbents has at least some in the Miami Herald rethinking the whole generational shift theory.
The latest theory being trotted out: The power of incumbency.
Give Myriam Marquez credit. While not totally discounting the idea of a shift among young Cuban-Americans, she expresses doubt as to its existence, while acknowleding that the traditional Cuban factor could very well still be in play. From her column today:

Standing in front of the big screen in the Kendall sports bar, Democrat Joe Garcia congratulated U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart for a hard-fought win, as the image of Republican John McCain giving his concession speech flickered behind him.
It was election night, and the crowd of college students, black activists and white and Hispanic supporters had been counting on Garcia’s win in what polls showed as a nail-biter. This was supposed to be the year that tested Cuban-American voters’ fierce allegiance to the GOP. Yet all three Cuban-American incumbents in Congress won handily even as Democrat Barack Obama made inroads among younger Cuban Americans and seized the non-Cuban Hispanic vote statewide.
Did the Cuba issue really fall from the political radar as some pollsters told us?
Or have Cuban Americans not budged an inch, as the Republican winners now tell us?
The answer is more nuanced.
In fact, Garcia’s loss — by 6 percentage points in a district with about 25 percent Cuban Americans — has more to do with non-Cuban whites and Hispanics and blacks in his district, which covers Southwest Miami-Dade and a chunk of Collier County. Thousands embraced Obama but didn’t bother to vote in that congressional race.

Martinez, a hugely popular mayor in heavily Cuban blue-collar Hialeah for years, won in only one precinct in his ”city of progress.” Even if many of the voters in Hialeah are more recent arrivals who would prefer to see Bush administration travel restrictions lifted to visit family they left behind, the majority chose Lincoln, one of the architects of the restrictions. But many split their vote, handing the presidency to Obama, who has promised to ease those limits on travel and remittances.
Florida International University professor Dario Moreno, whose preelection polls on the congressional races proved more prescient than any santero’s seashell clairvoyance, said the results prove the power of incumbency.
He thinks Garcia lost in the tightest of the three races because the Democrat didn’t do enough on Miami Cuban radio to make his case. “He didn’t try to peel off Cuban votes from Mario.”
Mario’s district, which has seen a seismic shift in voter registration that has lost about 20,000 Republican voters, still managed to deliver. Bottom line, said Moreno: “People underestimate how hard it is to unseat an incumbent.”
Nor can we underestimate the passion and pain of exile.

Henry’s analysis of Hialeah zip code 33012 contradicts Marquez’s assertion of a split vote. We’ll see when the full analysis of the votes is concluded. Professor Dario Moreno does make a good point about Garcia failing to make his point on Cuban radio. Perhaps that’s because of his condescending attitude towards listeners of those stations. Obviously a strategy and attitude that sunk his chances of winning.
Let’s see what theory the Herald can come up with next.

5 thoughts on “More on Cuban-American Voting Patterns”

  1. The Miami-Herald continues with their theories and at the end we proved them wrong.
    The Miami-Herald to this day continues to attack the one ethnic group that is most responsible for the city’s growth in the last 49 years. This is probably the only place in America were this kind of situation takes place.
    The only antidote that the Cuban-American community has is to keep proving wrong institutions like the Miami-Herald.
    Actually the last line in that editorial is the one that should tell them all:
    Nor can we underestimate the passion and pain of exile.
    The Miami-Herald continues to downplay to this day how much it means to us Cuban-Americans the 49 years of pain of loosing a country and a way of life to a bloody Communist dictator that promised “CHANGE” for the better when he took over the country so long ago.
    Now the American people will get a dose of this “CHANGE” from the Marxist-Anti-American bullshit artist elected to office on Tuesday night.

  2. The Herald is beyond hopeless. It’s not even smart enough to know what’s best for it in bottom-line business terms. It’s simply incorrigible. If it ever “sees the light,” it will only be when it’s too late for it to make any difference.

  3. this is not Cuba… Your fear of CHANGE is ignorant.. you keep wanting to call this guy Jimmy Carter, or a Commie or a Socialist… He is an AMERICAN. all i read here is a bunch of scared old men and women afraid of “what might happen”. This vote for me symbolized the young people of this country being tired of all your old tired ways of thinking… this is our time, this is our future… the old ways were good in the old days… this is a new time

  4. Hey just want to remind everyone that our representatives in South Florida give great constituent services no matter what. That in the end is what beat both pretenders.

  5. stoneloc,
    Spare me your liberal bullshit views, take them someplace else because we know better (as life, experience and history have tough us) that to follow your stupidity.
    I could care shit what you have to tell me about the young stupid people of this country (that have been brainwashed by the MSM, Hollywood elite and the liberal College professors) that voted that Marxist-Anti-American (and that’s what he is, period)into office on Tuesday nite.
    These young people that you claim are tired are extremely stupid and they’re going to learn that fact in the next four years.
    And for all those old people and the old ways that you criticize let me tell you that those old views and ideas you claim come from history and painful experiences lived by these old people and their experiences have tough them a very painful lesson that assholes like you are way too dumb and stupid to understand.
    Unfortunately too many young people in this country and idiots like you have been brainwashed with all the liberal ideas and will learn a very painful lesson in your lifetime for following the likes of Barack Hussein Obama.
    And yes Jimmy Carter is a Communist asshole elected in 1976 by the American people into office and the in next four years that he ruled he proceeded to screw-up America and around the world very well. I remember very well.
    By the way I was young around that time and learned a very important lesson from that experience.
    For all I care, take you new times, your new ways and ideas and shove them in that part of your body were the sun doesn’t shine as you have a lot to learn yet.
    Those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it.

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