This is the tenth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
In Part 6, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33010 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 66.1% Cuban. We discovered that in those 10 precincts John McCain obtained 63.2% of the vote.
Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the 6 precincts (there was a new one in 2008 that didn’t exist in 2004) George W. Bush obtained 70.9% of the vote. That’s a shift of 7.7%. This is more of a shift than we’ve seen in the other zip codes thus far. Consider that the proportion of Cubans in each zip code could also be shifting.
There are some other pretty big caveats to this analysis. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was updated to reflect the county’s revised election results as of 11/14/08.
…an island on the net without a bearded dictator
