What’s the deal with Ohio?

The conventional wisdom (meaning Nate Silver and the mainstream media) is that Obama is going to win the electoral college even if he loses the popular vote because he has a stranglehold on Ohio. Ohio is an important swing state and it’s almost certain that if Romney wins there that it will be a very short night for Obama. But what’s the real state of the race there? The RCP average of Ohio polls has Obama ahead by 2.3 points. Since D/R/I splits on these polls have been all over the place I have been looking at the independent vote. Nationally, as I’ve pointed out, Romney is leading with independents by a good margin (anywhere from 4% – 12% depending on the poll). In Ohio the story is scrambled with 3 polls giving Obama the edge among independents and 5 giving Romney the edge. The most suspect of these polls are the University of Cincinnati poll that gives Obama a +14 among independents and an ARG poll that gives Romney the Independents by a 21 point merging Remarkably the two polls have Obama up by 2 overall.


So what’s the deal with Ohio? It’s anybody’s guess. My gut tells me that Ohio independents aren’t that different than independents around the country and that they will go for Mitt Romney but also that Dem turnout is going to be stronger in Ohio than nationally. So my overall takeaway is that Ohio is very winnable for Romney and if he has the kind of popular vote win nationally that I’m projecting he should carry this state and win the election.

4 thoughts on “What’s the deal with Ohio?”

  1. I think the entire national election could rely on the turnout in Cincinnati, OH – where Romney needs to be strongest. Northern OH is a strong Dem base, and Southern OH a strong GOP base. (Sort of a microcosm of the U.S.)

    Henry, do you think Romney can win nationally without OH? I have a hard time seeing how he gets to 270 without it?

  2. Honey, I just hope Evangelicals aren’t turned off by Romney’s Mormonism.

    I’m not crazy about it either, but give me a Mormon (even though I don’t consider them Christian) over a Commie anyday.

  3. Mr. Mojito, I think you’re right to bring up the mormon thing but there’s such an aversion to Obama and his decidedly anti-Christian agenda that I think most evangelicals are going to rationalize their vote Romney despite his mormonism.

    In terms of winning without Ohio, it’s mathematically possible if another state such as PA or WI goes for Romney but I expect that a rising tide will float all boats and that Romney will carry OH as well as some these other states that will surprise casual observers and Dem partisans.

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