Prior to 1959, Cuba was a country with net immigration, meaning that the number of immigrants arriving to live in Cuba was greater than the number of people leaving Cuba. According to Cuba State data, the Cuban population fell from 11,247,925 in 2011 to 11,163,934 in 2012. If you take a look at some numbers, just from U.S. statistics; then Raul Castro’s reforms haven’t worked.
Number of U.S. Coast Guard interdicions 2006-2012: 12,631
Number of Cubans obtaining Permanent Resident Status 2006-2012: 266,017
Also, note that Raul’s reforms include massive layoffs of government workers, presumably age wise, the very same demographic that is leaving Cuba.
Cuba is hemorrhaging.
266,017 immigrants = Two legal Mariel boatlifts after the U.S. government said that they would never allow another Mariel exodus again.