The “real” reason for King Raul’s acceptance of the Normalization Circus

Very perceptive analysis.

Most Cubans know all this already, but most non-Cubans do not.

The article begins with a long quote from The Economist (different color font).

From The American Interest

Trouble in Havana
The Real Reason for Obama’s Cuba Breakthrough
Failure of socialism in Venezuela is imperiling regime survival in Cuba.  The Economist:

“For the past 15 years Venezuela has been shipping oil to Cuba, which in turn sends thousands of doctors and other professionals to Venezuela. The swap is lucrative for the communist-controlled island, which pays doctors a paltry few hundred dollars a month. It gets more oil than it needs, and sells the surplus. That makes Cuba perhaps the only importer that prefers high oil prices. Venezuelan support is thought to be worth 12-20% of Cuba’s GDP.

Recently, the arrangement has wobbled. Low prices have slashed Cuba’s profit from the resale of oil. Venezuela, whose oil-dependent economy is shrinking, is sending less of the stuff. Figures from PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil company, suggest that it shipped 40% less crude oil to Cuba in the first quarter of 2016 than it did during the same period last year. Austerity, though less savage than in the 1990s, is back. Cuba’s cautious economic liberalisation may suffer.

On July 8th Marino Murillo, the economy minister, warned the legislature that Cuba would lower its energy consumption by 28% in the second half of this year and cut all imports by 15%. The government has ordered state institutions to reduce their energy consumption dramatically. Television producers have been told to film outdoors to save the expense of studio lighting. Foreign businesses, some of which have not been paid by their government customers since last November, are being asked to wait still longer, though the government is negotiating to restructure sovereign debt on which it had defaulted.

This, not White House diplomatic brilliance, is why the Castro brothers opened the door a crack to the U.S. In other words, the Castros need more Yankee tourists to drink Rum and Coca Cola.”

There was never any intention to accelerate political or economic change. The whole point of opening up was to avoid change. The Cubans gathered around the Castro brothers and their creaky (but powerful) socialist state fear the return of full-throated capitalism and democracy to Cuba, in part because the likely result would be that rich Cuban Americans would quickly rebuild their power in an impoverished modern Cuba. Basically, they would buy the island back.

With economic power will come political power, and the veterans of the Castro regime will have nothing left to show for sixty years of poverty and sacrifice. The ‘reform’ faction in Cuba hopes that an interim twilight period between total socialism and total capitalism will allow them to do what other ex-communists have done, and shift their political control in a socialist context into political control and economic power as Cuba changes. They hope for the kind of privatizations and investments that leave the current elite holding the sources of wealth.

Continue reading HERE.

1 thought on “The “real” reason for King Raul’s acceptance of the Normalization Circus”

  1. Carlos, this may be news to ordinary people in Iowa or North Dakota, but all the usual suspects know it and have known it all along. They may be a lot of things, but they’re not retarded.

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