How long will the ‘transfer of power’ in communist Cuba last?

Emilio Morales in Diario de Cuba:

Will the Transfer of Power in Cuba Last?

Raúl Castro’s retirement delays the internal power struggle that will be unleashed upon his death.

In the wake of the 8th Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, many wonder if the transfer of power carried out will last over time. At first glance, it may seem that it will. Above all, because the transfer was not the result of Raúl Castro’s physical disappearance, but rather a well-calculated process to position his family in the most important circles of power on the island.

The transfer of power has taken place in the midst of a very tense political, social and economic situation, but, until now, one that has been kept under control. Most of the opposition in Cuba is controlled and coerced, and those that are not are under close surveillance. The real fear of the leadership today is a spontaneous revolt of a highly frustrated, desperate and hungry population, which could have the power to overcome the dictatorship, no matter how devious and violent it may be.

After placing each piece in its square, Raúl Castro now becomes a kind of consigliere in the classic style of Cosa Nostra, stepping back into the shadows, from which he will issue instructions to Miguel Díaz-Canel, and allow Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Callejas and his family to do whatever they want with the country’s finances and wealth.

However, the durability of the handover will depend greatly on the life span of the retired dictator. Raúl Castro, who is about to turn 90, is likely to die in the short term. If the claims that he suffers from esophageal cancer, rectal cancer, and cirrhosis (from which he must convalesce, due to his alcohol consumption) are true, his role as consigliere could be relatively short.

Even if these reports are not true, he could pass away any moment, due to his advanced age. This is where the durability of the transfer becomes a very critical variable, as the generation that he will leave in command does not fill the power vacuum that the Castros have left.

Infighting for power

When Raúl Castro is dead, the internal struggle for power will become visible. And this is when several questions will be answered. Will Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Callejas be able to keep the new set of generals who control the military power in line? Will Alejandro Castro Espín and Raúl Rodríguez Castro survive the internal battle for power? Can López Miera stave off a possible conspiracy by those generals who have been marginalized from the country’s power and wealth?

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1 thought on “How long will the ‘transfer of power’ in communist Cuba last?”

  1. One thing is very clear among all this rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic: this is ALL about the prime directive and what the ruling class wants. It has NOTHING to do with ordinary Cubans, who are incidental.

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