As I recall, it was then Governor Jimmy Carter who used the misery index against President Gerald Ford in 1976. It was inflation plus unemployment equal the misery index. It was thrown back at President Carter in 1980 and had a lot to do with Ronald Reagan becoming the 40th president and bringing a lot of GOP senators with him.
The misery index is back and it will hurt the Democrats, according to Bloomberg:
A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day.
The result: Based on past voting patterns, President Joe Biden’s party can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and a few in the Senate too, easily wiping out razor-thin Democratic majorities.
My sense is that the 2022 results will be driven by two factors: First, the misery index is real and people feel it every time that they fill their tank or buy food. And second, who will show up to vote this time?
This is always hard to “poll” but my impression is that a lot people angry with President Biden plan to vote. They are furious about a lot of things, from school curriculums to cabinet members who can’t seem to do anything about any problem. How you ever seen a less qualified group of people than those running the country? Can you say Pete The Transportation man?
So it will be a good day for the GOP. It looks that way with 90 days to go. But don’t forget to vote!