As Fidel Castro’s socialist revolution marks another anniversary on New Year’s Day, Cubans are certain the 65th consecutive year of failed socialist policies will continue to be a disaster. Coming to the end of what some are saying is Cuba’s worst economic year, Cubans have no reason to believe 2024 will be any better. Instead, with the communist regime promising even more revolution and socialism, they are convinced it will be even worse.
Via Diario de Cuba (my translation):
After such a difficult year, what are Cubans expecting in 2024?
Discouragement, feelings of abandonment, and fear in the face of the escalating citizen insecurity plaguing the island are the three most recurrent expressions regarding 2024 among Havana residents consulted by DIARIO DE CUBA during a tour of those neighborhoods the regime neither showcases nor mentions in its official reports.
In their forecasts for the new year, Havana residents harbor no doubts it will be worse. There’s not a hint of improvement in the lives of a population marked for six decades “by futile sacrifice, unfulfilled promises, constant migrations that undermine the sanctity of the family, and the progressive deterioration of a set of utopias they call the Revolution.”
For Alejandra Vidal, a neighbor from the Casablanca district and a former Biology teacher, this is “an image that contrasts with the worn-out rhetoric that the country’s leadership insists on maintaining at the expense of life itself, including its dignity.”
“In the balance of achievements and failures, the Cuban Revolution has been nothing but the reiteration of a whim and the constant construction of an enemy under siege. The currency to sustain itself has precisely been the rupture of hopes or yearnings of that human capital, forced to rely on illegalities instead of their salary. Prostitution is not just limited to the commercialization of sexual acts. If we read the recent speeches by [Miguel] Díaz-Canel, it won’t be hard to conclude that the Revolution will continue, hence the ‘continuity,’ as a simplistic apology for poverty,” says Vidal, referring to the Cuban president’s interventions during the Plenum of the Communist Party Central Committee (PCC).
“We’ve already said it: nothing, absolutely nothing we do is to harm the people. Our main task is economic recovery. The measures announced yesterday will provide a necessary boost to the economy. We will continue the Revolution and socialism,” asserted Díaz-Canel amidst a barrage of criticism of his administration and the proposed “macroeconomic stabilization program,” which, according to the generalized opinion among Havana residents, will merely be smoke and mirrors.
“Migrating by any means possible is the only option left for Cubans. However, it’s not a viable option for everyone, and little is said about the most heart-wrenching sacrifice the Cuban family is enduring: financing the migration of their children, an act that is paid for, beyond the monetary aspect, with physical pain and tears,” says Aurelio Carralero, a father of three teenagers and a resident of the Managua district.
“The abandonment of studies, either to migrate or to work, is a tragic situation that repeats itself within families. On one hand, there are those families who economically can no longer support their children’s university studies. On the other hand, there are those families who, facing a landscape of violence that pervades their respect, prefer to take their children out of the country. Another critical aspect is that the increase in alcohol and drug consumption among adolescents and young people is related to the lack of true recreation options and quality of life, with alternatives accessible to all budgets,” adds Carralero.
It’s estimated that in the two-year period of 2022-2023, more than half a million Cubans have left the island. The vast majority are young people who either dropped out of school or graduated but didn’t gain work experience in their fields.
Alongside the youth, single mothers, retirees, and those dependent on social assistance give less credence to the populist and triumphalist discourse of the regime’s authorities regarding 2024. The remuneration from work as a natural source of income doesn’t even guarantee the satisfaction of the most basic needs of a Cuban family. State salaries and pension and social assistance checks are classified by Havana residents as “a joke that disguises the indigence in which ordinary Cubans survive, particularly the most vulnerable among them.”
“It’s impossible to imagine that in 2024 any aspect could improve in the country. There’s not a single signal from the government that could even awaken the motivation of a single Cuban to believe such a scam: bread, salt, rice, sugar, milk, eggs, these basic foods cannot be covered in their entirety by a state salary at this moment. Working for the State doesn’t even cover the costs of dying peacefully anymore,” says Hugo Miralles, a resident of the Alberro district in Cotorro municipality. Miralles refers to the words of the Prime Minister, Manuel Marrero Cruz, who in his recent speeches appealed for “understanding” that in 2024 the resources the government may have will be those it can produce, but warned that “to achieve this, it is necessary to work, and work well.”
“The mere announcement of subsidy cuts, along with the increase in public service tariffs such as electricity and water, is terrifying. How can they ask for understanding after they themselves had to acknowledge the total failure of the Tarea Ordenamiento (Economic Reform) and all its guidelines? That 60 years later they recognize that to achieve a ‘fairer and more efficient scheme’ it is necessary to ‘subsidize people and not products’ should be classified as a crime, as a genuine fraud,” considers Miralles.
In the face of the imminent disappearance of the ration book, further widening the gaps in social inequality and economic apartheid, the Food Monitor Program, an independent initiative studying food insecurity in Cuba, warned that “given the serious food insecurity in Cuba, reducing the few subsidized foods, which had already significantly increased in price with the Economic Reform, will entail greater inequality in access to food for Cubans.”
Later on, the initiative recalled that “in Cuba, there are more than 3,809,000 households with over 11 million users. More than 60% of these homes have lost access to food while devoting over 100% of their income to obtaining food, alternating with other unofficial or illegal jobs. Therefore, these measures, in addition to worsening the vulnerability of Cuban families, will increase shortages and boost the black market, illegality, corruption, and crime.”
Although the economic aspect is the most referenced among the Havana residents we spoke to, a significant number of women agree in affirming that “Cuba is no longer a safe country for us.”
“The horrifying increase in the murders of women being assumed by the government from a political ideology is shameful, and even more so when they use the existence of the FMC (Federation of Cuban Women) as an example of security and emancipation for Cuban women,” says Valeria Rosselló, a resident of the Wajay district, who claims that two of her friends were victims of femicides this year.
According to Cuba’s Attorney General, Yamila Peña Ojeda, since 2020, the issue of women’s murders — which the regime avoids calling femicides — has been addressed with “greater intentionality,” but she admitted errors in the implementation of action protocols.
She also acknowledged that as of the close of October 2023, there were 117 incidents of violent deaths of women (without specifying the period). The underreporting by independent Cuban observatories included, at the time of writing this report, 86 confirmed femicides so far this year. The number of victims makes Cuba the country with the highest increase in femicides in 2023, according to the Latin American Femicide Map (MLF), released on November 22.
“As a woman, as a young person, and as a mother, I do not perceive nor believe that in the next year the government will have the political will to get deeply involved in what it has never done for decades: protect women. The example of the femicide of the teenager Melani García Lorenzo is like a full stop for all the details around that event. No, 2024 will not be in any way a better year for us, not while this government continues to hold the reins of the country,” says Rosselló.
Well, the ‘diaspora” had better get itself in gear, because it will be expected to provide even more, not to say pretty much everything. The “revolution” is a screaming failure, but all it cares about is staying in power.