We are not voting yet. In fact, it’s 10 months away and so much could happen. As they say, a week in politics is a lifetime, so 10 months is like a few centuries. Nevertheless, it’s looking good for the former president.
The latest RCP average has Mr. Trump up by 2 in the popular vote, and the people betting have him up too. The bad news is that he is not at 50% or the safe zone. The good news is that he is doing better than 2016 or 2020.
It’s easy to be ahead when the incumbent is at 40%. It’s even easier when President Biden is on vacation when there are so many problems on the table. I understand that every president needs a little time off for fishing, golfing and walks on the beach. However, Mr. Biden looks detached from his job, and his inability to address the media does not help. So it looks good 10 months ahead as long as we understand that it is 10 months ahead.
By the way, former President Trump should select a strong foreign policy person for vice president, such as his former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Why? Because I think that we are going to do be doing a lot of foreign policy talking in 2024.
P.S. Check out my blog for posts, podcasts and videos. We discussed these challenges with Bill Katz, the editor of Urgent Agenda: