The communist Castro dictatorship was hoping for a Harris win on Tuesday, which most likely would have brought unilateral concessions by the U.S. and more dollars in their pockets. Instead, they got their worst nightmare: Trump. The only question is, how bad of a nightmare will the next four years be for the Cuban dictatorship.
Some experts opine in Diario de Cuba (my translation):
The ‘Havana Wall” will fall or there won’t be any ‘substantial changes’: Opinion on how Trump’s victory will affect Cuba
Republican Donald Trump is the winner of the election held on November 5 in the United States. The businessman defeated the Democrat and current Vice President, Kamala Harris, in key states and even in Miami-Dade County, considered a Democratic stronghold and home to many Latino immigrants, including Cubans. Experts in DIARIO DE CUBA—economist Emilio Morales, political scientist Juan Antonio Blanco, lawyer Roberto Veiga, and activist Omar López Montenegro—share their views on what Trump’s return to the White House could mean for Cuba.
“A Hope for Cubans”
Emilio Morales, president and CEO of the Miami-based Havana Consulting Group, is emphatic about what Trump’s return will signify: “the end of the dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela.”
“This was overwhelming, like Reagan’s victory in the 80s. If Reagan brought down the Berlin Wall, Trump will bring down the wall of Havana,” predicts the economist.
“A hope for Cubans has opened up,” he believes. “Trump’s victory shows that it is possible; regardless of the obstacles, it is possible.”
“Today They Mourn in Havana”
For Juan Antonio Blanco, president of Cuba Siglo XXI, the Republican candidate’s victory confirms that “the communications, political, and academic establishment in the U.S. has lost touch with reality and can’t read the signs of where different American sectors’ wills are headed.”
“The Democratic Party lost its way some time ago, when a then-radical left-wing minority began redesigning it as a coalition of minorities. And now they’re discovering that there are large majorities, including youth they thought were theirs, who simply don’t share their philosophy, creed, or vision of the country and the world,” opines the Cuban political scientist.
“As for Cuba, I’m sure that today they mourn in Havana, Tehran, Caracas, and Managua. They’ll be wondering what to do, especially in Havana’s case, where they’re facing a terminal crisis, a complete system collapse; with the Russians unable to come to their aid, and the Chinese more worried about the new president than about saving a government that doesn’t pay its debts. This is good for the cause of democracy in Cuba and for human rights and freedom,” Blanco asserts.
“It Remains to Be Seen What Havana Will Do”
Roberto Veiga, director of Cuba Próxima, a research center on the rule of law, suggests that whether Trump will take a confrontational or negotiation approach with Havana may depend on the Island’s authorities.
The lawyer points out that Trump won the election “with significant backing” and believes he’ll start a term with political strategies that will impact the global modus vivendi, not just that of the U.S.
“With Cuba—its government—he may maintain the same position, meaning a confrontational stance, even an extreme one, while also being open to negotiation,” says the director of Cuba Próxima.
“In 2017, after announcing in Miami his confrontation with the Cuban government, Trump sent a message to Havana that he could change his position if the Cuban government fully allowed private enterprise, expanded internet access, and incorporated real elections for deputies through some nomination method the Cuban authorities might accept. Havana did not heed the request,” recalls the lawyer.
“Now, according to public statements from his team, Trump would offer something similar again, but with new demands: unconditional release of political prisoners, democratic elections, and abandoning influence over Latin American countries. In other words, it may be in the Cuban government’s hands to decide if the White House will pursue confrontation or negotiation. It remains to be seen what Havana will do,” Veiga says.
“Cuba’s Problems Stem from the Regime-Citizen Relationship”
Unlike his compatriots, activist Omar López Montenegro doesn’t believe there will be “substantial changes in relations with the regime” with Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.
“Trump was in power for four years, and beyond certain measures regarding migration, travel, and remittances, there were no significant changes in the relationship between the dictatorship and U.S. elected governments,” Montenegro points out.
The activist believes that “thinking that the possibility of democratic change in Cuba is directly tied to the election of one U.S. party or another is subscribing to the regime’s narrative that the island’s issues are a result of the so-called U.S.-Cuba conflict.”
“Cuba’s problems stem from the relationship between the regime and its citizens, and it can only fundamentally change through Cuban actions, not through any foreign government, as historical evidence shows,” he concludes.
I would like Trump to get the word to Cuban leadership that they should prepare for last days. He should encourage them to leave Cuba now rather than wait until they are forced out. But how does Cuba get restored to it all that the leaders stole from them so they could use that money to rebuild their country?
Raúl Castro can’t live forever. The first thing that needs to happen is is that the enablers of the regime need to be addressed . You tell me where the money comes from and those are the people you need to deal with..