Cuba’s Castro dictatorship is hanging by a thread, with certain policy moves, President Trump may very well be in position to preside over the end of communist tyranny in Cuba after more than six long decades. There is no telling if the ideas put forth in the following essay would work, but they certainly deserve consideration.
Cuban independent journalist Rafaela Cruz writes from Havana via Diario de Cuba (my translation):
Trump can make history in Cuba
The hardships may trigger isolated outbursts, but these will be easily controlled through repression and temporary relief of living conditions. Something more is needed to mobilize the Cuban people.
Sixty-five years of accumulating misery, repression, and death have not been enough for Castroism to achieve the international pariah status that Chavismo “enjoys” today.
Chavismo and Castroism are perceived and treated differently by the international community, not because they are essentially different—for only willful blindness could ignore the comparable criminality of both regimes—but because in Venezuela, thanks to popular opposition, Chavismo has had to shed the “social” mask behind which it hid its tyranny, while in Cuba the disguise remains relatively intact… especially for those who, out of ideological convenience, refuse to stare the monster in the face.
The different international treatment stems from the fact that Hugo Chávez and his accomplices, though they tried, were unable to entirely dismantle private property. This has allowed for some degree of civic autonomy, which, despite severe repression, continues to challenge the regime, forcing it to reveal its true nature.
In Cuba, however, thanks primarily to Soviet support, but also due to a mix of historical inexperience among the populace and Fidel Castro’s personal charisma, private property was eradicated within a few years—or rather, everything was privatized by Fidel himself. This deconstructed society and reorganized it into vertical support structures for the system, which to this day prevent the emergence of an organized opposition.
The lack of large-scale popular confrontation in Cuba to force the regime to reveal its tyrannical nature—so that no one in the concert of nations could deny that Castroism is a perverse and illegitimate dictatorship—results in many governments, though aware of the realities on the island, lacking grounds to treat Castroism as the parasite it is. For instance, Europe. Meanwhile, others use it as an excuse to approach and assist the regime in its survival, as Mexico is currently doing.
The embargo on Cuba, well justified by the expropriation of legitimate American property and maintained to prevent Castroism from strengthening and spreading its violence to other countries and continents—as it has done whenever possible—has worked relatively well as containment. However, this policy is insufficient to generate the sustained wave of popular opposition necessary to internationally isolate Castroism and weaken it further.
The pains of misery created by the Castro government through its denial of freedom and democracy to the people—the root of its impoverishing conflict with the United States—will never outweigh the fear of repression. This is primarily because the still well-oiled totalitarian system prevents coordinated collective action from a nearly non-existent civil society. Moreover, the government has the emigration valve to release internal pressure when it rises.
Hardship may spark isolated explosions, but these will be easily controlled through repression and temporary alleviation of the conditions that exacerbated the unrest. Something more is needed to mobilize the Cuban people.
For protests to be sustained and large enough to crack the system, in addition to the socialism-induced misery exacerbated by the conflict Castroism fuels with Washington, there needs to be a goal to direct the people’s aspirations—a vision of hope and relief that, unfortunately, the exile community in Miami has not been able to or has not known how to offer as an alternative to the current government. Cubans, after 65 years of ideological indoctrination, fear the future and prefer the devil they know to the “good”—freedom and capitalism—which they view through the lenses of Castroist propaganda.
Without lifting the embargo and even increasing the pressure—halting migration to the United States, restricting the flow of dollars, and instead facilitating the shipment of goods—in other words, maintaining the stick, a carrot must also be offered. This is where Donald Trump, with his control over the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches, could exercise his well-known originality and unpredictability in international politics and secure his place in history by changing the rules of the conflict between democratic U.S. governments and the criminal gang that hijacked an island and holds its people hostage.
The carrot: Incentives aimed at the people to greatly reduce uncertainty about what a post-Castro Cuba would look like. Offering a clear picture of how things would improve and outlining specific tools to transition Cuba to democracy without undergoing a social and economic catastrophe worse than the current situation.
Cubans must believe, internalize, that they rise up and protest not just to oppose the oppression keeping them in miserable poverty, but for a better, real, and possible future for themselves and their children. A country without hope needs dreams; an alternative must be offered to those who, even without education, healthcare, security, or a future, still think that without Castroism, Cuba would have no education, healthcare, security, or any future other than Haitian-style chaos.
The carrot, in broad terms, must include a plan for vital support during the transition and the promotion of the economy and democracy on the island: extreme migration flexibility, advice across various fields, monetary aid, direct loans, investments, access to multilateral credit organizations with Washington’s backing, access to the North American market, complete removal of the embargo, direct aid in medicine, food, connectivity, transportation, and a development plan similar to the Marshall Plan.
If the stick and carrot are combined with an exit door for the regime—guarantees of a safe and well-compensated escape for key figures and social peace without revenge for the rest of the Castroists—the incentives to break the Gordian knot holding so many millions of Cubans in so many shores, even unknowingly, would be better configured than ever before.
Cuba’s future lies in Cuban hands. But if the strong Mambi arms once needed the powerful hand of the North, why should we not desire the help of the 47th President of the United States today, should he wish to make history with us? The opportunity is there.
For the protection of America as well as for the liberation of Cuba, this is the hour when Trump should come up with ideas of how to free the Cuban people.
One of the things that must be considered is how do we get back most of the money stolen from the Cuban people and in the hands of the leaders of Cuba? This money is needed for those who will be rebuilding this completely broken down country.
I have in my imagination considered all kinds of plans of how we can accomplish this great change in Cuba.