Donald Trump’s second term can make a huge difference in the cause for freedom in Cuba, not by negotiating with the communist Castro dictatorship, but by offering hope for a better future that can inspire the Cuban people to force a change.
In a postscript to her original essay, Cuban independent journalist Rafaela Cruz clarifies that she is not calling for a return to Obama’s failed policies of appeasing the Cuban regime, but for the U.S. to reach out directly to the Cuban people, who are the only ones who can bring about change.
Via Diario de Cuba (my translation):
Trump can make history in Cuba – Part 2
Cubans need to believe that a better future awaits them after the end of Castroism, and the United States can help make that happen.
The majority of those who read my previous article, “Trump Can Make History in Cuba,” understood it as advocating for a renewal of Obama’s policy of political, economic, and migratory concessions—without requiring anything from Castroism other than paving the streets for the Obamas’ visit and posing for photos.
When most people interpret an article contrary to the author’s intention, the fault lies with the writer, not the readers. For this reason, I feel it necessary to clarify, given the importance I place on this initiative being discussed and inspiring other concrete proposals for action. We criticize plenty, but we propose far too little to change or even weaken the regime.
Why is there no organized opposition or more widespread protests in Cuba?
Cubans have plenty of reasons to protest—enough to justify turning the country upside down with pent-up anger and accumulated humiliation. However, the complete and total demolition of Cuban civil society by a charismatic sociopath backed by Soviet resources has left citizens defenseless, literally incapable of generating collective and coordinated action without repressive forces immediately shutting down any attempt, even in its embryonic stage.
Cuba’s conditions prevent the emergence of recognizable leadership. When it does emerge, leaders end up imprisoned or dead in a “traffic accident.”
Spontaneous Protests
Recent protests have all been direct responses to material shortages. Desperate individuals occasionally take to the streets to shout, and sometimes others join them, forming a crowd driven more by economic anguish than political exhaustion. But this momentum is fleeting, dissipating as soon as the government cracks down and provides some electricity, water, or whatever shortage initially spurred the protest.
Is it important for these protests to expand?
Castroism still maintains a legitimacy that, for example, Chavismo has lost. Massive, sustained protests can erode or even erase this legitimacy, paving the way for an international coalition to isolate the regime. Venezuela’s case shows that this alone isn’t sufficient—at least not yet—but it undoubtedly pressures those in power. Combined with Cuba’s lack of economic resources—unlike oil-rich Venezuela—it could force Castroism to negotiate its exit. Anything that weakens the regime is worth trying, as it diminishes its bargaining power when the final hour inevitably arrives.
How can people be kept in the streets?
Without the ability to organize—which is nearly impossible to comprehend from outside Cuba—it’s only feasible to aspire to massive, continuous protests if people shift from protesting material shortages to protesting the regime itself. Yet many fear a Cuba without Castroism because it’s all they’ve ever known, and others fear a transition period where material hardships might worsen.
If desired, Trump could provide material assurances to alleviate these fears and encourage people to overcome their fear of regime change. How? By offering a carrot to the people while maintaining or even increasing the stick against the government.
How to convince Cubans that this is possible and real?
U.S. democracy would need to outline a detailed action plan promising that, once Castroism ends—but never before—there will be extreme migratory flexibility, technical assistance, financial aid, direct loans, investments, access to multilateral credit organizations with Washington’s backing, access to the U.S. market, and initially, direct aid in medicines, food, connectivity, transportation, and a development plan akin to the Marshall Plan.
This plan must convince Cubans that a post-Castro future would be an upward spiral, not regression. Despite appearances, fear of a Cuba without Castroism is widespread, paradoxically most among those who suffer the system’s miseries. The regime, even while distributing poverty, knows how to sell the narrative of equality and social justice.
Why Trump?
Trump’s influence over the U.S. government structure is arguably the greatest of any leader since Cuba was treacherously taken hostage in 1959. Voters have entrusted him with both chambers of Congress and numerous governorships, alongside a conservative majority in the Supreme Court and, soon, the Federal Reserve.
As the 47th president, Trump, known for embracing innovative ideas without fear, has little to lose and much to gain by destabilizing this dictatorship—an enemy of the West—just 90 miles away, always posing a national threat to the U.S.
Trump could not only draft the plan but also codify it into law, making it credible.
Would it work?
Drafted by a bipartisan commission and approved by a Republican majority, it would carry significant credibility among Cubans. A targeted campaign could help them understand that Washington is serious.
Beyond credibility, the plan must be detailed and thorough, addressing every potential scenario and offering coherent solutions to ensure that even the worst-case scenario is perceived as a genuine improvement over Castroism.
Would it be enough?
On one hand, the plan would offer incentives for the Cuban people—ranging from increased migratory access to the U.S. to an immediate improvement in quality of life (only after Castroism falls)—to inspire protests, knowing a better and achievable future is possible.
On the other hand, it would intensify pressure on the regime, such as halting illegal migration that brings the regime revenue and relieves internal pressure, and banning cash remittances from Miami in favor of a package system providing essentials—everything but the dollars that end up in the regime’s coffers.
Additionally, guarantees of a safe and even compensated exit for key Castroist figures—an unpleasant pill to swallow but necessary—along with zero retribution for lower-level operatives would form part of the strategy.
This combination would create the strongest coalition of forces against the regime, at the ideal time, considering its terminal phase—economically and ideologically depleted, with its most historic figures nearing death.
Utopia?
Why not try a new approach? Changing the rules in favor of freedom without conceding anything to Castroism risks nothing. Perhaps it could convince Cubans that escaping Castroism is not only possible but beneficial, providing concrete aspirations worth fighting for, even through spontaneous protests. This would prevent them from settling for temporary fixes, like restored electricity or a truckload of potatoes, as though they were animals pacified by scraps.
Castroism convinces many that without it, Cuba would descend into chaos. That mindset must change. Chaos is the current reality, while beyond it lies freedom and capitalism—the tools of prosperity—that Cubans can learn to wield with the support of a country that has much to gain from a prosperous, democratic Cuba.
Cubans do not need migratory freedom to the U.S. They need freedom in Cuba, health care in Cuba, and an open society with education, instead of indoctrination, and construction projects and leaders in prisons they locked up Cubans in or the ability for Communist leaders to leave if they pay up what they stole from the Cuban people so there is money to rebuild.
All this with free elections of good people who desire not power, but liberty for Cubans.
At this moment our country is poor and heavily in debt. Let the Communist bastards pay back what they stole if they want to get out of Cuba.