Miami

This is the fifth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33013.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically the eastern side of Hialeah.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 33,365 (100%)
Hispanic: 30,134 (90.3%)
Cuban: 24,388 (73.1%)
Median age: 41.2
So this an area that is almost 3/4 Cuban (at least in 2000).
There are 8 different precincts located in this zip code that reported results. For reference they are: 314 315 329 330 337 338 378 and 379.
A total of 9,406 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 6,441 of those votes or 68.5%
Barack Obama received 2,920 or 31.0%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
This is the first zip that I analyze where McCain’s percentage is lower than Cuban pop. That would suggest that the Cubans in this zip were (at least slightly) less likely to vote for McCain than in other zips. But again the census data is from 2000 and doesn’t necessarily reflect voters but population instead.
The high cuban density zips I’ve analyzed thus far suggest that Obama probably topped out somewhere below 30% for Cubans.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the fourth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33144.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically West Miami and Flagami (insert Oscar Corral joke here). The western boundary is 87th Avenue, the eastern boundary is 57th avenue. The southern boundary is 16th street and the northern boundary is Flagler.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 25,332 (100%)
Hispanic: 22,451 (88.6%)
Cuban: 17,451 (68.9%)
Median age: 44.5
So this an area that is more than 2/3 Cuban. It’s the oldest zip we’ve examined so far.
There are 7 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 341 404 424 426 552 553 and 555.
A total of 8,555 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 5,964 of those votes or 69.7%
Barack Obama received 2,556 or 29.9%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
As I’ve said before, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 68.9% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (69.7%). We can therefore deduce again that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip who are less likely to have voted for the GOP candidate.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s election results as of 11/14.

This is the third in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33165

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically Westchester. The western boundary is the turnpike, the eastern boundary is 87th Avenue. The southern boundary is Miller Road and the northern boundary is a few blocks south of 8th St.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 57,079 (100%)
Hispanic: 46,400 (81.3%)
Cuban: 34,997 (61.3%)
Median age: 40.5
So this an area that is 60% Cuban and still relatively young.
There are 16 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 415 419 421 435 436 437 438 439 708 709 710 712 713 714 715 and 731.
A total of 25,802 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 17,701 of those votes or 68.6%
Barack Obama received 7,969 or 30.9%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
As I before, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 61.3% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (68.6%). We can therefore deduce that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip who are less likely to have voted for the GOP candidate.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: The post above was edited to reflect the county’s revised election results dated 11/14/08.

This is the second in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.

Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33012

As you can see from the map above this zip code contains a large swath of Hialeah. The western boundary is the Palmetto expressway, the eastern boundary is Palm Avenue. The southern boundary is W. 29th ST and the northern boundary is W. 68th St.

Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 74,948 (100%)
Hispanic: 67,475 (90%)
Cuban: 49,613 (66.2%)
Median age: 40.2

So this an area that is 2/3 Cuban and still relatively young.
There are 20 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 316 318 319 321 323 324 325 326 328 331 332 336 354 361 362 363 374 375 377 and 386. Curiously, no votes were tabulated for 386.

A total of 22,313 votes for president were cast in these precincts.

John McCain received 14,862 of those votes or 66.6%
Barack Obama received 7,353 or 33%

Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.

As I mentioned in the comments on my first post about this matter, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 66.2% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (66.6%). We can therefore deduce that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip.

Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.

UPDATE: The post above was edited to reflect the county’s revised election results dated 11/14.

This is the first in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.  Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. First up is 33175

As you can see from the map above this zip code is in western Miami-Dade County. The eastern boundary is the Turnpike, the western boundary is 147th Avenue. The southern boundary is Miller Road (S.W. 56th Street and the northern boundary is just south of Tamiami Trail (S.W. 8th Street). I actually had to go to a birthday party in this area on Saturday and was astounded by McCain sign after McCain sign.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 52,581 (100%)
Hispanic: 44,300 (84.3%)
Cuban: 29,738 (56.6%)
Median age: 37.5
So here is an area that’s more than half Cuban and relatively young.
There are 14 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 413, 707, 459, 451, 449, 440, 457, 441, 414, 773, 706, 444, 704, and 705.
A total of 21,028 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 14,443 of those votes or 68.7%
Barack Obama received 6,497 or 30.9%
Now of course we don’t exactly know how many of those 14,443 were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans that cast them vs. the ones that were cast for Obama but it’s pretty clear that this area with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post has been updated to reflect the county’s latest election results dated 11/14/08.