Presidente Lopez-Obrador?

My friend Alfredo Corchado of The Dallas Morning News posted a front-page article about the presidential race in Mexico: 52% for Lopez-Obrador in a four-way race.  I got the paper copy, but the internet requires subscription.

Reuters has a new poll, too.  It shows López-Obrador with 45% or another big lead:

The survey by polling firm Parametria showed support for the leftist former mayor of Mexico City at 45 percent, an increase of six percentage points from a prior April poll. That gave Lopez Obrador more backing than his nearest two rivals combined.

Lopez Obrador, 64, was runner-up in the previous two elections, with fears that he could destabilize the economy contributing to his defeat. This time frustration over corruption, rising violence and tepid growth have all helped lift his bid.

Lopez Obrador’s closest competitor is Ricardo Anaya, a former chairman of the center-right National Action Party (PAN), who is fronting a right-left coalition of parties.

However, support for Anaya slipped 5 percentage points to 20 percent, in spite of the May 16 withdrawal from the race of former first lady and onetime PAN member Margarita Zavala.

So is “Presidente López-Obrador” a reality in early July?

It would be easy to say “yes,” given this polling data, but I’m still holding out hope that the Mexican middle class and business sector will coalesce around #2, Mr. Anaya.

Second, how reliable is Mexican polling data?  I don’t know of a single Mexican friend who will discuss anything of consequence with a stranger on the phone or someone with a notepad on the street.  It’s all about security, not politics.

I could be dead wrong here, but López-Obrador’s big lead just doesn’t match what I hear.

What happens if López-Obrador wins?

One friend warned of capital flight or peso slippage.  He also added that it’d benefit Trump calling on companies to bring their plants to the U.S.

My friend’s claim has even more merit after this CNBC story: Investors are running away from Mexican stocks as leftist pulls ahead in the polls!

Another told me class warfare will erupt in Mexico.

A third friend said he’s moving to Spain because he has Spanish residency from his mother.

Presidente López-Obrador?  Not something I am nor any of my Mexican friends are looking forward to.

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